Crypto Market July Recap: The Fourth Bull Market Is Accelerating - Is Altseason Coming?

#Altseason #CryptoMarket
In the previous article, we mentioned an interesting statistic in the crypto market: over the past 12 years, BTC has seen corrections in August and September with a probability as high as 67%. That's why August is often dubbed the "Devil's August." Against this backdrop, July became a critical pivot point for the entire crypto market.
BTC surged to an all-time high of $120,000, ETH soared nearly 50% in a single month, and stablecoin and ETF inflows reached the second-highest record in history. However, behind this rapid rally, the market is also facing several unresolved issues: U.S. rate-cut expectations, the re-escalation of tariff wars, and growing influence of structural changes in capital distribution.
If you only look at prices, July indeed felt like a carnival. But if you examine capital flows, policy dynamics, and market structure, there are many hidden trends and risks that deserve serious attention.

BTC's Rise - Just a Coincidence? Actually, It Was Inevitable
Technically speaking, BTC had been oscillating in the so-called "Trump Bottom" range since the end of 2023, lasting over eight months. During this phase, many institutions accumulated at lower levels, and a full reshuffling of chips occurred. By July, everything was in place: rising rate-cut expectations and accelerated corporate allocations allowed BTC to break out of its consolidation range and rally sharply.
In terms of price action, BTC rose 8.01% in July with a volatility of nearly 17%. It broke past $120,000 at its peak, with significantly increased trading volume. Although it retraced to around $115,000 by month-end due to macroeconomic data, the overall trend remained above the 60-day moving average and key ascending trendline - standard behavior of a bullish continuation.
The BTC MACD indicator also showed strengthening momentum. As long as there are no black swan events, further upward movement to retest all-time highs is highly probable.
ETH Breakout: Is Altseason Really Coming?
Many have begun to doubt whether "Altseason" is a thing of the past. In earlier phases of this bull run, BTC was almost the sole performer, while ETH and other altcoins underperformed - ETH even dipped below its "faith level" of $1,300 back in April.
But in July, ETH turned out to be the market's biggest surprise.
ETH not only recovered its losses, but also rallied nearly 49% in a single month - from $1,300 to nearly $2,000. More importantly, the ETH/BTC pair broke through several key technical resistance levels, suggesting ETH might finally be carving out an independent trend.
This wasn't a coincidence. First, ETH spot ETFs saw inflows of over $5.2 billion in July alone, setting a new record and coming close to BTC spot ETFs ($6.06 billion). Second, more and more U.S. companies are starting to include ETH in their asset allocations. As of the end of July, corporate-held ETH accounted for 2.6% of total circulating supply - still lower than BTC's 4.6%, but growing rapidly. This means pricing power is gradually shifting from retail traders to more stable institutions and off-exchange capital.
In other words: ETH is becoming the new darling of compliant capital.
So when we talk about "Altseason" again, it may no longer be just a speculative concept - it's becoming a verified allocation theme for corporations and ETFs.
Corporations Are Buying BTC Like Crazy, Capital Structure Shifts
Another key development in July: "who is buying BTC."
According to market data, institutions purchased over $6.2 billion worth of BTC through various channels in July - far surpassing retail volumes. Public companies now directly hold over 4.5% of total BTC supply. Year-to-date, corporate purchases have even surpassed ETF flows, becoming the largest single buyer group.
Meanwhile, "ancient whales" from the early days of Bitcoin started unloading large amounts - for example, a wallet from the Satoshi era sold over 80,000 BTC in July. In total, long-term holders sold nearly 200,000 BTC during the month.
Surprisingly, this level of selling didn't crash the market. It shows that today's market has far greater depth and absorption capacity. Institutional inflows, ETFs, and stablecoin channels provided strong counterbalance to the sell pressure.
We're witnessing a major shift - from "whale dominance" to "decentralized structure + institutional dominance." This change won't make prices rise in a straight line, but it will make market volatility more orderly, trends more predictable, and more sensitive to policy variables.
Policy Variable: Will Rate Cuts Actually Happen?
This might be the most pressing question for August and September.
In July, the FOMC still didn't give a clear rate-cut timeline. Fed Chair Powell's speech was "hawkish," but internal division became evident - Waller and Bowman supported immediate cuts, while Kugler suddenly resigned, leaving market sentiment in limbo.
By July 31, rate-cut expectations for September had dropped to 41%. But the very next day, the nonfarm payrolls came in shockingly low - only 73,000 new jobs, well below the expected 110,000. Historical numbers for May and June were also sharply revised down. Rate-cut expectations instantly rebounded.
According to CME FedWatch:
The probability of a 25bps rate cut in September jumped to 94.4%
For October, the probability of keeping rates unchanged fell to 1.6%
The probability of a cumulative 50bps rate cut rose to 67.6%

This rate-cut rollercoaster caused severe price volatility for BTC and ETH. And in the short term, this uncertainty will continue to impact market sentiment. Especially upcoming PCE and CPI data - any rebound could suppress rate-cut expectations and pressure crypto markets.
But in the longer run, as long as there's no actual economic recession and inflation remains under control, rate cuts remain highly likely - an undeniable long-term bullish driver for crypto.
Strong Stablecoin Inflows, On-Chain Liquidity Remains Active
In July, the crypto market attracted a total of $29.5 billion in new inflows - making it the second-highest monthly inflow on record. Of this, $12 billion came from stablecoin channels, indicating a continuous influx of "off-chain money."
ETFs and corporations contributed a combined $17.5 billion, acting as the core engine behind this rally.
Stablecoins are evolving from mere "trading intermediaries" to key "capital gateways," and their importance will likely grow further.
Has Altseason Truly Begun? Policy Will Decide
Despite ETH's surge and strong performances from some altcoins, a full-blown Altseason still requires two things: continued monetary easing (i.e., confirmed rate cuts) + rising risk appetite (i.e., clear policy direction).
From July's trends, ETH is leading the way, but L1, L2 projects and DeFi sectors remain relatively weak - indicating that market confidence is still in recovery. If rate cuts are confirmed and sentiment keeps improving over the next 1–2 months, Altseason could genuinely begin.
Risk Alert: Policy Remains the Biggest "Tail Event"
The biggest current uncertainty lies in policy and geopolitics.
Trump's renewed "tariff war" is heating up again. In July, a new tariff regime was announced, raising duties on multiple countries - further stoking inflation expectations. If this continues, it could suppress crypto upside potential.
Meanwhile, U.S. crypto regulation is still in flux. Any sudden policy move could become a "black swan" that derails the market.
Final Thoughts
If we had to sum up the July crypto market in one sentence, it would be: the structure has changed, and so has the trend.
BTC remains the core of this bull market - but its pricing logic is shifting from retail speculation and technical trades to institutional allocation and macro hedging.
ETH and other high-quality assets are gaining favor, making the market structure healthier overall.
And all of this - has only just begun. The real bull run might still be ahead of us.