Dear Thursday Jerome,

Hey buddy. It's me, Friday Jerome. Or rather, it's the collective consciousness of every Fed watcher who spent Thursday evening stress-eating almonds while parsing your Jackson Hole non-committal poetry.

Remember when you said conditions "may warrant" a rate cut? Such delicate phrasing. Such careful calibration. You probably thought you were being prudent, right? Measured? Presidential?

Well, about that.

The unemployment claims data that dropped yesterday just torched your entire playbook. Higher-than-expected jobless claims, slower private job creation, and a labor market that's looking less like a soft landing and more like a controlled demolition. Your buddy Williams from the New York Fed is already out there talking "gradual rate cuts" like he's reading from a script you haven't seen yet.

Markets are pricing in an 85% chance of a September cut, and frankly, they're being conservative. The bond vigilantes have already moved on. They're not waiting for your committee's careful deliberations or your academic parsing of dual mandate semantics. They're pricing in reality while you're still conjugating verbs in subjunctive mood.

Here's what kills me about this whole charade: the S&P 500 just notched five record highs in August alone, up 10% this year, and everyone's acting like we're threading some impossible needle. The market isn't broken. It's not overheating. It's just expensive, which is what happens when you hold rates at restrictive levels while corporate earnings keep grinding higher and AI hype refuses to die.

But sure, let's pretend this is about data dependence. Let's pretend Thursday's jobs report wasn't the writing on the wall. Unemployment ticking up to 4.2%, labor force shrinking, all while core PCE stays stubbornly above your 2% target. You've got your dual mandate pulling in opposite directions like a medieval torture device, and you're acting surprised that markets want clarity.

The truth? You were already behind the curve Thursday morning. You just didn't know it yet.

Some analysts are now talking about a 50-basis-point move "to make up the lost time." That's not monetary policy anymore. That's damage control. That's admitting you missed the exit ramp while you were busy checking your mirrors.

The funniest part is watching the political theater unfold. The White House is already criticizing you for not acting sooner, as if presidential election cycles and Fed independence have ever been comfortable bedfellows. They want their economic victory lap, and your careful deliberation is getting in the way of their narrative.

But here's the thing, Thursday Jerome: none of this changes the fundamental calculus. The economy isn't falling off a cliff. Inflation isn't surging back to 1970s levels. Corporate balance sheets are still fortress-like. Consumer spending remains resilient, even if it's shifting patterns.

What's changed is perception. Market psychology. The story investors tell themselves about what comes next. And in that story, your September meeting isn't about careful calibration anymore. It's about credibility. It's about whether the Fed can still read the room, or if you're going to keep parsing data while the markets write the script without you.

So here's some free advice from your Friday self: stop overthinking this. The path is clear. The data is cooperating. The political pressure is manageable. Cut 25 basis points in September, signal more cuts are coming, and let the market do what it's been trying to do all year – price in a reasonable landing path for this cycle.

Because the alternative – watching jobless claims tick higher while you debate the theoretical frameworks of neutral rate assumptions – isn't prudence. It's paralysis.

And paralysis, my dear Thursday self, is how central bankers get remembered for all the wrong reasons.

See you at the podium,
Your Increasingly Impatient Weekend Self

P.S. – Maybe skip the almonds next time. Try whiskey. It pairs better with inevitable rate cuts.