The Fed's Pity Party: A Dramatic Reading

Scene: A dimly lit conference room at the Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building. The curtains are drawn. Jerome Powell sits alone at a long mahogany table, staring at a stack of employment data while holding his head in his hands.

POWELL: [muttering to himself] How did we get here? How did we let it get this bad?

[He picks up Friday's jobs report, waves it dramatically]

POWELL: [voice rising] The unemployment rate! The participation numbers! We sat there for months, watching the labor market crack like old paint, and what did we do? We talked about "measured responses" and "data dependency." Meanwhile, the market is now pricing in a 96% chance of a 25 basis-point rate cut this month. Ninety-six percent! When has the market ever been that confident about anything we do?

[Stands up, begins pacing]

POWELL: You know what the real tragedy is? A $14 trillion record-breaking run in US equities is heading for an inflection point, and here we are, about to cut rates for the first time since Trump became president again. The irony is so thick you could choke on it.

[Picks up his phone, scrolls through market data]

POWELL: Look at this madness. Bitcoin is trading at $115,234, below its Aug. 14 all-time high near $124,000 but still firmly higher in 2025, with the global crypto market cap now $4.14 trillion. Four. Trillion. Dollars. In digital assets that exist because people have lost faith in traditional monetary policy. And gold has surged to $3,643 per ounce, near record highs. When gold and crypto are both moonshot-bound, you know something's broken.

[Slumps back into chair]

POWELL: The worst part? We all saw it coming. Rapidly deteriorating job growth has solidified support for a quarter-point interest rate adjustment among Fed officials. Rapidly deteriorating! We're using crisis language for what should have been a soft landing.

[Voice becomes more animated, almost manic]

POWELL: And now the crypto kids are partying like it's 2021 again. Some analyst out there is telling people rate cut will double up Bitcoin price to $200,000 by the end of the year. Two hundred thousand! Because apparently, when central banks admit they've screwed up, the only rational response is to buy internet money.

[Looks out the window]

POWELL: The Nasdaq and S&P 500 hit record levels this week. Records! While we're preparing emergency rate cuts. Does anyone else see the problem here? We've created a system where bad economic news is good news for assets, and good news for assets means we've failed at our job.

[Phone buzzes - he checks it]

POWELL: Oh, perfect. Starting with the Bank of Canada and then the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, shifting to the Bank of England the following day, and ending with the Bank of Japan, central banks may either adjust borrowing costs in what's being called a "36-hour interest-rate spree." We've turned monetary policy into a coordinated reality show.

[Stands up, addresses an imaginary audience]

POWELL: Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Federal Reserve's latest production: "How to Inflate Asset Bubbles While Pretending to Fight Inflation." Tonight's performance features the classic move of cutting rates just as euro area sovereign yields continued to rise on the back of a hawkish reading of the ECB's tone. Because nothing says "coordinated global monetary policy" like central banks moving in opposite directions!

[Sits back down, voice becoming quieter, more philosophical]

POWELL: You know what haunts me? America's central bankers are confronted by an all-too-familiar question: Is it too late to step in? Too late. We've been behind the curve so many times, we should just set up camp there and call it home.

[Picks up a red pen, circles numbers on a chart]

POWELL: But here's the real kicker - Trump has not been subtle in his dislike of Fed Chair Powell, and tomorrow we're going to cut rates, essentially admitting that his criticisms about our timing were right all along. The man who tweets at 3 AM had better monetary policy instincts than the entire Federal Open Market Committee.

[Phone rings - he doesn't answer]

POWELL: Let it ring. Probably another journalist asking if we're "behind the curve." Behind the curve? We're not behind the curve. We ARE the curve, and we're shaped like a question mark.

[Lights begin to dim as he speaks more softly]

POWELL: So tomorrow, we'll cut. Twenty-five basis points. Maybe fifty if we're feeling dramatic. The markets will cheer, Bitcoin will probably hit new highs, and somewhere in a trading floor in Manhattan, a 24-year-old will make more money in an afternoon than most people make in a decade, all because we finally admitted what everyone already knew.

[Final moment of silence, then he speaks to the audience]

POWELL: The show must go on. Even when the script makes no sense.

[Curtain falls]

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Wednesday's Fed decision is widely expected to deliver the first rate cut since Trump's return to office. Markets are positioned for celebration, crypto is positioned for euphoria, and central bankers are positioned for regret. The only question left is whether this is Act I or the final scene of a much longer tragedy.