The Monday Morning Hangover

A fictional dialogue between your brain and your portfolio after Powell's Jackson Hole finale

Brain: Sipping coffee, scrolling through notifications "Oh, look who decided to show up to the party. The Dow just jumped 800 points to a record. What did I miss?"

Portfolio: Smugly adjusting its tie "Only the most obvious trade setup of the month. Powell gave his little speech at Jackson Hole on Friday, and suddenly everyone's betting on a September rate cut like it's a sure thing."

Brain: "Let me guess — you're going to tell me this was all predictable?"

Portfolio: "Bitcoin hit $124,496 last week. MSTR is up 5.7% today alone. Even Ethereum decided to crash the party at $4,954 — its first dance above that level since 2021. Meanwhile, you were probably wondering if it was too late to get in."

Brain: Pausing mid-sip "Wait, Bitcoin's actually down from there though. It's sitting around $110,531 now. And didn't it drop to $114,706 just last week?"

Portfolio: Defensive "Macro liquidation wave. Happens to the best of us. The point is, we're in a completely different regime now. When the Fed chairman gives markets exactly what they want to hear about rate cuts, crypto doesn't just rally — it levitates."

Brain: "You're telling me a 2.7% Bitcoin bounce and an 8.6% Ethereum surge today is... levitation?"

Portfolio: Rolling its eyes "Context, my friend. BitMine Immersion Technologies is up 625% this year. Six. Hundred. Twenty. Five. Percent. The S&P 500 is up a measly 10% by comparison. We're not talking about small moves in a sleepy market."

Brain: "But here's what I don't understand. Everyone's celebrating like rate cuts are definitely coming in September. Markets are pricing in an 87% chance of a 25bp cut. But what if—"

Portfolio: Interrupting "What if nothing. You see that Dow record? That's not speculation, that's positioning. When risk assets surge 800 points in a day because the Fed chair winks at dovish policy, you don't ask philosophical questions. You ride the wave."

Brain: Skeptical "Ride the wave into what exactly? Crypto just showed us it can drop from $124K to $114K in a matter of days. Ethereum fell 2.5% to $4,354 before this bounce. These aren't exactly stable victories."

Portfolio: Leaning back "Volatility is the price of admission. You want to know what I see? Trump signing executive orders allowing crypto in 401(k)s. Washington driving the rally. Institutional money flowing into digital assets like never before. When Robinhood stock jumps 4.2% and Coinbase follows suit, that's not retail FOMO — that's infrastructure getting priced for scale."

Brain: "Or it's a setup for disappointment when reality hits. What happens when the Fed doesn't cut as aggressively as markets expect? What happens when these crypto prices prove unsustainable again?"

Portfolio: Grinning "Then we'll have this conversation again in six months, probably after I've doubled. But right now, while you're busy worrying about hypotheticals, I'm sitting pretty on the best risk-adjusted returns since the last cycle peak."

Brain: Setting down coffee cup "Fine. But when this unravels—"

Portfolio: "When it unravels, we'll blame Powell for being too dovish, Trump for being too crypto-friendly, and the markets for being too optimistic. Until then, enjoy the ride. The Nasdaq's up, crypto's flying, and your Monday morning just got a lot more interesting."

Brain: Sighing "I hate it when you're right."

Portfolio: "I'm always right. Eventually."

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The author is long coffee and short sleep. Past performance does not guarantee future results, but it does make for better newsletter content.