10 Sharp Value Bets for July 27, 2025
10 Sharp Value Bets for July 27, 2025
We’ve identified ten +EV bets (expected value ≥ 5%) for confirmed games on Sunday, July 27, 2025. Each pick is based on a clear edge between our model’s win probability and the implied probability from market odds. Let’s dive in:
🏟 Basketball (WNBA) — Phoenix Mercury vs. Washington Mystics
📌 Bet: Mercury Moneyline (ML)
📈 Model Probability: 80%
📉 Odds: 1.33
🧮 Implied Probability: 75%
📊 Value Edge: +5%
Mercury are strong favorites and our model supports it — 80% win chance vs 75% implied. There’s value even laying the juice.
🏟 Basketball (WNBA) — Valkyries vs. Connecticut Sun
📌 Bet: Over 155.5 Total Points
📈 Model Probability: 62%
📉 Odds: 1.91
🧮 Implied Probability: 52%
📊 Value Edge: +10%
Model projects a fast-paced game with 62% probability to go over. That’s a full 10% above market expectation.
🏟 Basketball (WNBA) — Atlanta Dream vs. Minnesota Lynx
📌 Bet: Over 158.5 Total Points
📈 Model Probability: 61%
📉 Odds: 1.91
🧮 Implied Probability: 52%
📊 Value Edge: +9%
Both teams trend toward high-scoring. Model shows 61% probability to clear this line — great value above market.
🏟 Baseball (MLB) — Oakland Athletics vs. Houston Astros
📌 Bet: Astros Moneyline (ML)
📈 Model Probability: 65%
📉 Odds: 1.74
🧮 Implied Probability: 57%
📊 Value Edge: +8%
The Astros hold a strong matchup edge and the model sees them winning 65% of the time — value even at modest odds.
🏟 Baseball (MLB) — Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Yankees
📌 Bet: Yankees Moneyline (ML)
📈 Model Probability: 53%
📉 Odds: 2.09
🧮 Implied Probability: 48%
📊 Value Edge: +5%
As home underdogs, the Yankees are undervalued — our model favors them slightly and sees 5% positive EV.
🏟 Baseball (MLB) — Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox
📌 Bet: Cubs Moneyline (ML)
📈 Model Probability: 75%
📉 Odds: 1.52
🧮 Implied Probability: 66%
📊 Value Edge: +9%
The Cubs are in form and the mismatch is clear — 75% win probability vs only 66% implied makes this chalk worth backing.
🏟 Soccer — Spain vs. England (UEFA Women’s Euro Final)
📌 Bet: Spain to Win (90 minutes)
📈 Model Probability: 63%
📉 Odds: 1.77
🧮 Implied Probability: 56%
📊 Value Edge: +7%
Spain has dominated the tournament and remains slightly undervalued in the 90-minute market.
🏟 Tennis (ATP) — Adam Walton vs. Benjamin Bonzi
📌 Bet: Walton Moneyline (ML)
📈 Model Probability: 46%
📉 Odds: 2.50
🧮 Implied Probability: 40%
📊 Value Edge: +6%
Walton is a live underdog — our model sees this close to a coin flip, creating a solid +EV on the Aussie.
🏟 Rugby League (NRL) — Canterbury Bulldogs vs. Manly Sea Eagles
📌 Bet: Sea Eagles Moneyline (ML)
📈 Model Probability: 55%
📉 Odds: 2.50
🧮 Implied Probability: 40%
📊 Value Edge: +15%
Market underestimates Manly — our model makes them slight favorites, generating a massive value edge.
🏟 Baseball (MLB) — New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants
📌 Bet: Giants Moneyline (ML)
📈 Model Probability: 54%
📉 Odds: 2.17
🧮 Implied Probability: 46%
📊 Value Edge: +8%
Giants as home dogs offer value — our model gives them the edge despite the books pricing the Mets as favorites.
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