10 Sharp Value Bets for July 28, 2025
10 Sharp Value Bets for July 28, 2025
Looking for bets with real positive expected value (EV)? Here are 10 sharp picks for Monday, July 28, 2025, across MLB, WNBA, soccer, and tennis. Each bet below has a ≥5% value edge, meaning our model’s win probability exceeds the implied probability from the odds. All odds are in decimal format from major sportsbooks.
🏟 MLB — Atlanta Braves vs Kansas City Royals
📌 Bet: Royals Moneyline
📈 Model Probability: 46%
📉 Odds: 2.45
🧮 Implied Probability: 40.8%
📊 Value Edge: +5.2%
Kansas City has a better chance at home than the odds suggest, with Atlanta’s pitching not as dominant lately.
🏟 MLB — Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago White Sox
📌 Bet: White Sox Moneyline
📈 Model Probability: 42%
📉 Odds: 2.80
🧮 Implied Probability: 35.7%
White Sox are undervalued despite solid recent form; our model gives them a decent shot.
🏟 MLB — Washington Nationals vs Houston Astros
📌 Bet: Nationals Moneyline
📈 Model Probability: 40%
📉 Odds: 2.93
🧮 Implied Probability: 34.1%
Washington’s young squad has been competitive, and +193 offers clear value in a high-variance matchup.
🏟 MLB — New York Mets vs San Diego Padres
📌 Bet: Mets Moneyline
📈 Model Probability: 53%
📉 Odds: 2.16
🧮 Implied Probability: 46.3%
Market slightly overrates San Diego; our model prefers New York’s offense in a close game.
🏟 WNBA — Seattle Storm vs Connecticut Sun
📌 Bet: Sun +11.5 (Spread)
📈 Model Probability: 60% cover
📉 Odds: 1.91
🧮 Implied Probability: 52.4%
Connecticut’s recent improvement gives them a good shot to cover a wide margin.
🏟 WNBA — New York Liberty vs Dallas Wings
📌 Bet: Wings Moneyline
📈 Model Probability: 35%
📉 Odds: 3.52
🧮 Implied Probability: 28.4%
Dallas is a live home underdog; Liberty could be vulnerable after travel and tough schedule.
🏟 Soccer (Sweden Allsvenskan) — IF Elfsborg vs IFK Göteborg
📌 Bet: Elfsborg Moneyline
📈 Model Probability: 55%
📉 Odds: 2.05
🧮 Implied Probability: 48.8%
Elfsborg’s strong home record and better form make them a solid value play.
🏟 Soccer (Brazil Série A) — Flamengo vs Atlético Mineiro
📌 Bet: Atlético Mineiro Moneyline
📈 Model Probability: 18%
📉 Odds: 9.00
🧮 Implied Probability: 11.1%
Big underdog spot with value — Mineiro have the tools to surprise if Flamengo underperforms.
🏟 Tennis (WTA National Bank Open) — Emma Raducanu vs Elena-Gabriela Ruse
📌 Bet: Ruse Moneyline
📈 Model Probability: 48%
📉 Odds: 3.00
🧮 Implied Probability: 33.3%
Raducanu’s form and fitness are uncertain; Ruse offers big value in a near-coinflip match.
🏟 Tennis (WTA National Bank Open) — Naomi Osaka vs Ariana Arseneault
📌 Bet: Arseneault Moneyline
📈 Model Probability: 30%
📉 Odds: 4.00
🧮 Implied Probability: 25.0%
Osaka returns from a break; Arseneault could catch her cold and is underrated at home.
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