​​🔍 Smart MLB Value Picks – July 22, 2025 ⚾️📊

These aren't guesses — they're sharp picks backed by real data and expected value. Welcome to the new era of smart betting.

Best Value Bets (Edge ≥ 5%):

🏟 MIL @ SEA
📌 Bet: Mariners Moneyline
📈 Model Probability: 58%
📉 Odds: 2.10
🧮 Implied Probability: 48%
📊 Value Edge: +10%
Gilbert gives Seattle the home edge over rookie Misiorowski in a near-even matchup.

🏟 MIN @ LAD
📌 Bet: Dodgers Moneyline
📈 Model Probability: 80%
📉 Odds: 1.43
🧮 Implied Probability: 70%
📊 Value Edge: +10%
Yamamoto dominates weaker Twins lineup at home — mismatch on the mound.

🏟 STL @ COL
📌 Bet: Cardinals Moneyline
📈 Model Probability: 70%
📉 Odds: 1.65
🧮 Implied Probability: 61%
📊 Value Edge: +9%
Blalock (9.97 ERA) and MLB’s worst team can’t match up with surging STL.

🏟 KC @ CHC
📌 Bet: Cubs -1.5 Run Line
📈 Model Probability: 60%
📉 Odds: 2.00
🧮 Implied Probability: 50%
📊 Value Edge: +10%
Boyd (10-3, 2.34 ERA) gives Cubs a clear edge to cover against shaky KC staff.

🏟 CWS @ TB
📌 Bet: Rays Moneyline
📈 Model Probability: 78%
📉 Odds: 1.45
🧮 Implied Probability: 69%
📊 Value Edge: +9%
Rasmussen faces 35–65 White Sox — huge gap in pitching and team quality.

🏟 NYY @ TOR
📌 Bet: Blue Jays Moneyline
📈 Model Probability: 56%
📉 Odds: 2.05
🧮 Implied Probability: 49%
📊 Value Edge: +7%
Scherzer starts for Toronto vs Yankees rookie — pitching edge at value odds.

🏟 BAL @ CLE
📌 Bet: Guardians Moneyline
📈 Model Probability: 65%
📉 Odds: 1.76
🧮 Implied Probability: 57%
📊 Value Edge: +8%
CLE gets soft matchup vs Brandon Young (0-4, 7.52 ERA) — big edge at home.

🏟 HOU @ ARI
📌 Bet: Astros Moneyline
📈 Model Probability: 63%
📉 Odds: 1.81
🧮 Implied Probability: 55%
📊 Value Edge: +8%
Valdez vs E-Rod (5.94 ERA) gives Astros clear advantage on the road.

🏟 DET @ PIT
📌 Bet: Tigers Moneyline
📈 Model Probability: 63%
📉 Odds: 1.79
🧮 Implied Probability: 56%
📊 Value Edge: +7%
Mize (9-3) and strong DET lineup face weak PIT offense and Keller’s 3–10 record.

🏟 SF @ ATL
📌 Bet: Giants Moneyline
📈 Model Probability: 55%
📉 Odds: 1.93
🧮 Implied Probability: 52%
📊 Value Edge: +5%
Roupp gives SF a slight edge vs struggling Braves and rookie Davis Daniel.

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