​​🔍 Smart MLB Value Picks – July 23, 2025 ⚾️📊

​​**🔍 Smart MLB Value Picks – July 23, 2025 ⚾️📊

These aren't guesses — they're sharp picks backed by real data and expected value. Welcome to the new era of smart betting.**

Top Value Bets (Edge ≥ 5%)

🏟 Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Dodgers
📌 Bet: Twins Moneyline
📈 Model Probability: 43%
📉 Odds: 2.98
🧮 Implied Probability: 33%
📊 Value Edge: +10%
The Dodgers are priced as heavy favorites, but our model sees a much closer game. With Tyler Glasnow facing his former team and the Twins’ bats coming alive, Minnesota has real upset potential.

🏟 Los Angeles Angels at New York Mets
📌 Bet: Mets -1.5 Run Line
📈 Model Probability: 55%
📉 Odds: 2.14
🧮 Implied Probability: 47%
📊 Value Edge: +8%
The Mets have won consistently behind a resurgent rotation. Their offense should give Manaea a cushion to cover the run line at plus odds.

🏟 Los Angeles Angels at New York Mets
📌 Bet: Mets Moneyline
📈 Model Probability: 71%
📉 Odds: 1.56
🧮 Implied Probability: 64%
📊 Value Edge: +7%
Even as a favorite, the Mets are undervalued. Manaea and the home bats have a clear edge over a thin Angels lineup.

🏟 Kansas City Royals at Chicago Cubs
📌 Bet: Under 10.5 Total Runs
📈 Model Probability: 60%
📉 Odds: 1.85
🧮 Implied Probability: 54%
📊 Value Edge: +6%
Seth Lugo should keep the Cubs in check. Our model expects around 9 runs — after yesterday’s outburst, expect some regression.

🏟 Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Dodgers
📌 Bet: Under 8.0 Total Runs
📈 Model Probability: 55%
📉 Odds: 1.91
🧮 Implied Probability: 52%
📊 Value Edge: +5%
Glasnow vs Paddack sets up as a potential pitching duel. Our projections lean slightly to the Under in a low-scoring matchup.

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