โโ๐ Smart MLB Value Picks โ July 24โ25, 2025 โพ๏ธ๐
โโ๐ Smart MLB Value Picks โ July 24โ25, 2025 โพ๏ธ๐
These aren't guesses โ they're sharp picks backed by real data and expected value. Welcome to the new era of smart betting.
๐น July 24 Picks
๐ Toronto Blue Jays @ Detroit Tigers
๐ July 24, 2025
๐ Bet: Blue Jays Moneyline
๐ Model Probability: 57%
๐ Odds: 2.00
๐งฎ Implied Probability: 50%
๐ Value Edge: +7%
Toronto sends Lauer (2.80 ERA) against a struggling Tigers lineup โ solid value at even odds.
๐ Oakland Athletics @ Houston Astros
๐ July 24, 2025
๐ Bet: Astros -1.5 Run Line
๐ Model Probability: 68%
๐ Odds: 1.80
๐งฎ Implied Probability: 55.6%
๐ Value Edge: +12.4%
Houston faces Severino (3-11, 6.00+ ERA) and the leagueโs worst staff โ a great spot to cover the spread.
๐ San Diego Padres @ St. Louis Cardinals
๐ July 24, 2025
๐ Bet: Over 8.5 Total Runs
๐ Model Probability: 61%
๐ Odds: 1.95
๐งฎ Implied Probability: 51.3%
๐ Value Edge: +9.7%
Darvish (6.07 ERA) and two above-average offenses suggest a game that likely goes over.
๐น July 25 Picks
๐ Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Yankees
๐ July 25, 2025
๐ Bet: Phillies Moneyline
๐ Model Probability: 53%
๐ Odds: 2.10
๐งฎ Implied Probability: 47.6%
๐ Value Edge: +5.4%
Walker (3.75 ERA) gives Philly an edge over rookie Warren โ line undervalues the visitors.
๐ Los Angeles Dodgers @ Boston Red Sox
๐ July 25, 2025
๐ Bet: Dodgers Moneyline
๐ Model Probability: 52%
๐ Odds: 2.15
๐งฎ Implied Probability: 46.5%
๐ Value Edge: +5.5%
Ohtani powers a loaded Dodgers lineup vs. Bello โ model sees this as close to a toss-up.
๐ Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox
๐ July 25, 2025
๐ Bet: Under 7.5 Total Runs
๐ Model Probability: 58%
๐ Odds: 1.91
๐งฎ Implied Probability: 52.4%
๐ Value Edge: +5.6%
Imanaga (2.04 ERA) and Houser (1.56) face weak lineups โ expect a tight, low-scoring battle.
๐ San Diego Padres @ St. Louis Cardinals
๐ July 25, 2025
๐ Bet: Padres Moneyline
๐ Model Probability: 60%
๐ Odds: 1.80
๐งฎ Implied Probability: 55.6%
๐ Value Edge: +4.4%
Pivetta (10-2) gives Padres a strong edge over Mikolas โ value exists despite being favored.
๐ Colorado Rockies @ Baltimore Orioles
๐ July 25, 2025
๐ Bet: Orioles -1.5 Run Line
๐ Model Probability: 57%
๐ Odds: 1.95
๐งฎ Implied Probability: 51.3%
๐ Value Edge: +5.7%
Kremer vs Freeland and the 24โ76 Rockies is a mismatch โ Oโs should win by multiple runs.
๐ Atlanta Braves @ Texas Rangers
๐ July 25, 2025
๐ Bet: Over 9.5 Total Runs
๐ Model Probability: 65%
๐ Odds: 1.90
๐งฎ Implied Probability: 52.6%
๐ Value Edge: +12.4%
Wentz and Rocker both allow runs in bunches โ strong offensive conditions point to the over.
๐ Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates
๐ July 25, 2025
๐ Bet: Diamondbacks Moneyline
๐ Model Probability: 60%
๐ Odds: 1.83
๐งฎ Implied Probability: 54.6%
๐ Value Edge: +5.4%
Kelly gives D-backs a big edge over struggling Pirates โ market undervalues Arizona slightly.
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