I would venture to say it's higher than that...

On the Kalshi betting market, bitcoin now has a 10% chance of hitting $200k this year.

(Source: https://x.com/BitcoinNewsCom/status/1943368595007823911/photo/1)

That being said it also has a 90% chance of not hitting $200k this year.

However, if one looks at previous charts and past patterns just about everything points to bitcoin hitting $200k by end of this year.

So... there is that.