🌍In-Depth Analysis of the Global Oil Price Outlook for the Second Half of 2025

🔋 I. Supply Landscape: Surplus Pressure and Capacity Competition
Global supply expansion is led by non-OPEC+ countries, particularly Brazil and Guyana in South America, where crude oil production continues to rise, driving global supply above the 10 million barrels per day threshold. While OPEC+ has extended some production cuts until the end of March 2025, it may gradually reduce the scale of cuts thereafter, further releasing capacity.
The risk of oversupply is intensifying, with multiple institutions predicting that the scale of crude oil oversupply could reach 200,000–1.4 million barrels per day by 2025. Citibank noted that inventory accumulation could accelerate in the second half of the year, especially if OPEC+ increases production, with oversupply potentially exceeding 1 million barrels per day, becoming the core factor suppressing oil prices.
📉 II. Demand Outlook: The Tug-of-War Between Economic Recovery and Energy Transition
Regional Demand Diversification Developed economies are experiencing structural declines in oil consumption due to the replacement of traditional energy sources by new energy alternatives (such as the widespread adoption of electric vehicles). Meanwhile, emerging markets like India and Southeast Asia are showing strong demand resilience driven by industrial growth, but the overall increase in demand is unlikely to offset supply expansion.
Inventory and Consumption Dynamics: The summer travel peak may temporarily boost demand, but expectations of a slowdown in global economic growth in the fourth quarter, coupled with refinery capacity constraints, are weakening crude oil consumption momentum. Historical data shows that strategic reserve replenishment activities are concentrated in low-price ranges (e.g., $60–70), and a significant decline in oil prices could trigger a short-term demand rebound.
⚖️ III. Financial Market Linkages: Stock Market Crash Impact and Derivatives Arbitrage
The transmission effect of the stock market crash on oil prices: The global stock market crash in April 2025 led to panic selling of commodities, with oil prices plummeting over 7% in a single week and briefly falling below the 60-dollar threshold. If stock markets become volatile again, liquidity tightening may force funds to reduce their long positions in crude oil, amplifying price volatility.
Leverage in the Derivatives Market Option strategies (such as inter-month spread combinations) have become the mainstream tool for hedging short-term risks. For example, traders capture time value decay gains in volatility by selling near-month call options and buying far-month call options. Such operations may exacerbate intraday oil price volatility.
📊 IV. Technical Outlook: Key Price Ranges and Signals
Support and Resistance Zones
Strong Support Zone: $55–$60 (shale oil cost line + strategic reserve replenishment psychological level)
Mid-term Resistance Zone: $75–$80 (OPEC+ fiscal balance threshold + demand suppression critical point)
Breakout Variables: If geopolitical conflicts escalate, oil prices may temporarily surge to test the 90 USD level, but lack sustained momentum.
Open Interest Data Suggests Short-Seller Dominance By mid-2025, speculative net long positions in WTI futures had declined by 40% from the beginning of the year, reflecting institutions' lack of bullish sentiment for the second half of the year. If inventory data continues to deteriorate, increased short-selling could accelerate price declines.
💎 Conclusion: Low-range oscillation as the main trend, with event-driven spikes possible
Oil prices are likely to weaken and oscillate within the $55–75 range in the second half of 2025, exhibiting a “low-open, high-close” pattern but with a downward shift in the central trend. The core logic is as follows:
Fundamentals lean bearish: Supply surplus and weak demand exert dual pressure, prolonging the inventory drawdown cycle 24;
Financial attributes amplify volatility: Stock and bond market linkages plus derivatives leverage effects may trigger short-term sharp declines and rebounds;
Event-driven factors are limited to short-term disruptions: Geopolitical conflicts (such as in the Middle East or Russia-Ukraine) or emergency production cuts by OPEC+ may trigger pulse-like price surges, but cannot alter the oversupply landscape;
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Strategy recommendations:
Traders: Trade within the range, focusing on the 55 USD support level for reversal signals, and align with inventory data for swing trading.
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Long positions;
Industrial players: Utilize crude oil option combinations to lock in costs and mitigate risks of missed peak-season demand;
Long-term investors: Wait for signals of shale oil capacity clearance or a slowdown in renewable energy substitution before entering the market.
The oil price dynamics have shifted from a “shortage narrative” to “oversupply management.” Only by precisely capturing structural opportunities can one navigate the complexities of the oil market and move forward.