⚡ Tesla's moment of truth: Can the robot taxi revolution save TSLA in the second half of 2025?
Electronics cycle volatility.
Tesla's stock price will face a critical breakthrough in the second half of 2025, facing technical failure risks on one hand and betting on autonomous driving on the other. Here is the key roadmap for investors:
📉 1. Technical Cliff: $295
Triangle Breakout Risk: Tesla is in a tight consolidation pattern, with $295 as the decisive support level. If the stock closes below this level, it could trigger accelerated selling, targeting the secondary support level (Fibonacci retracement level) 1 around $273.
Upside Catalysts: Breaking above $314 (weekly resistance level) and $330 (triangle upper boundary) is key to confirming a bullish breakout. Historically, such breaks have driven strong directional rallies.
Short-Term Lifeline: Oversold conditions may bring temporary relief, but interruptions in momentum indicators (weekly MACD, stochastic oscillator) introduce vulnerability.
⚖️ 2. Fundamentals: Growth Pains vs. Innovation at the High End
Delivery Business Headwinds: First-quarter and second-quarter delivery volumes declined by 13% year-over-year, primarily due to weak demand and competitive pressure. Profit margins remain depressed, with first-quarter profits declining by over 50% year-over-year.
Valuation Paradox: Tesla's forward P/E ratio stands at 185x (5-year average: 95.5x), with its premium entirely dependent on future technological bets rather than current automotive operations.
Remaining Tightness: Second-quarter free cash flow plummeted to $146 million, sparking questions about funding for robotaxi expansion.
🤖 3. Autonomous taxis: $0.30 per mile strategy
Austin launch: Preliminary autonomous taxi regulatory testing is underway, aiming to secure regulatory approval and public trust. This is a critical test for Tesla's “Level 4 autonomous driving” strategy.
Cybercab timeline: Mass production of dedicated autonomous taxis is planned for 2026. Delays could dampen market sentiment, while timely execution could trigger a speculative frenzy.
Competitive trap: Waymo, Cruise, and Wayve are rapidly advancing. Tesla's first-mover advantage is being eroded, and flawless execution is needed to justify its AI valuation premium.
🎯 4. Investor Strategy: Navigating Binary Outcomes
Bullish View: The successful launch of autonomous taxis and a surge in the adoption rate of Full Self-Driving (FSD) will prove Tesla is not just an automaker but an “autonomous mobility platform.” Wedbush's $500 price target and ARK's “moon shot” plan above $2,000 both metaphorically capture this disruptive transformation.
Bearish View: A break below $295 could open resistance at $273 or lower. Insider selling (e.g., board member Ira Ehrenpreis selling $162 million worth of shares) suggests market skepticism toward recent catalysts. 9
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Positioning tips: Use volatility-focused strategies (such as option straddle combinations) for hedging. For long-term holders, simply buy when the price confirms a break above $330 or approaches $273.
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💎 Conclusions for 2025 and beyond
This will address the trillion-dollar question: Is it a car company mired in the tech valuation quagmire, or a tech force poised to reshape transportation?