The Life-and-Death Game of the 2025 Crypto Market: Regulatory Dividends, Technological Revolution, and the Trillion-Dollar Capital Contest

—From Policy Relaxation to AI Integration, Who Will Dominate the Next Decade?

I. Regulatory Dividends: Global Policy Shifts and Geopolitical Games

1. The Rise of America’s "Crypto Utopia"

   • Policy Relaxation: The Trump administration promotes a Bitcoin strategic reserve plan, repeals the SAB 121 rule restricting banks from custodying crypto assets, and SEC’s new chair Paul Atkins advocates "guided regulation," clarifying token securities and exploring compliance pathways.
   • Institutional Entry: Bitcoin ETFs now hold over 1.1 million BTC (BlackRock’s IBIT accounts for 45%), while traditional institutions like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan accelerate expansion. CME launches Solana futures to solidify pricing power.
   • Hidden Risks: U.S. national debt exceeds $36 trillion, with credit rating downgrade risks. A potential liquidity crunch from a debt crisis could trigger a crypto market crash.

2. China and Emerging Markets’ Defensive Strategies

   • Financial Security Threats: Former PBOC Vice Governor Chen Yulu warns that USD stablecoins and Bitcoin’s global expansion threaten the internationalization of the yuan, while DeFi regulatory arbitrage weakens domestic tech competitiveness.
   • Battle for Technical Standards: The U.S. dominates ZKP and Layer2 fields, the EU integrates regulations via MiCA, and China faces blockchain firm exodus, risking loss of standard-setting authority.

3. Regulatory Arbitrage and Global Coordination

   • G20 Framework Games: Nations race to set digital asset rules. The U.S. seeks to absorb crypto into its financial hegemony, while China counters with the digital yuan.

II. Technological Revolution: The Layer Wars, AI Integration, and DePIN’s Rise

1. Ethereum’s Revival and Layer2 Competition

   • Pectra Upgrade: Ethereum optimizes account abstraction, L2 compatibility, and staking mechanisms to reduce gas fees and enhance security. Staking rates may exceed 50%, with TVL projected to hit $300 billion.
   • Blockchain Fragmentation: Base Chain (Coinbase ecosystem) TVL surpasses $40 billion, Solana achieves 100,000 TPS via Firedancer, and Sui/HyperLiquid capture niche markets with modular architecture.

2. AI + Blockchain: From Tools to Autonomous Actors

   • On-Chain AI Agents: NEAR co-founder predicts 1 million+ AI agents by 2025, managing wallets, executing trades, and acting as social media influencers (VanEck data).
   • Integration Challenges: High AI training costs, algorithm opacity, and regulatory scrutiny hinder mass adoption.

3. DePIN: The Industrial Revolution of Decentralized Infrastructure

   • Breakthrough Cases: Hivemapper maps 30% of global roads via 150,000 contributors, earning $500 million annually. Filecoin integrates AI and DePIN to address data storage and computing bottlenecks.

III. Trillion-Dollar Capital Contest: Institutions, Retail, and Stablecoin Struggles

1. Institution-Driven "De-Retailization" Trend

   • Bitcoin ETF Siphoning: BlackRock’s IBIT tops $40 billion, attracting pensions and sovereign wealth funds. Bitcoin’s "safe haven" narrative grows, but 80% of holdings remain retail-controlled.
   • RWA Tokenization Surge: Ondo Finance tokenizes $2.8B in U.S. Treasuries (4.44% yield); Maple Finance issues $2.46B loans, drawing Grayscale and Pantera.

2. Stablecoins: Payment Revolution vs. Dollar Hegemony Tool

   • Market Growth: Stablecoin market cap hits $1.93 trillion, projected to exceed $3 trillion in five years. Cross-border payment costs drop 60%, but Tether’s reserve opacity looms as a black swan.
   • Geopolitical Weaponization: The U.S. leverages USD stablecoins to cement reserve dominance, while confiscating Russian crypto assets in the Ukraine conflict highlights digital financial threats.
   • Regulatory Crackdowns: U.S. Congress debates laws banning "politician-issued coins," risking sector-wide collapse if passed.

IV. Future Pathways: Rebuilding Industry Value Between Frenzy and Rationality

1. Investor Strategies: Balancing Defense and Offense

   • Core Allocation: Bitcoin (40%) + Ethereum (20%) + RWA leaders (e.g., ONDO, 20%), targeting $180K BTC and $8K ETH long-term.
   • Risk Hedging: Hold 30% stablecoins (USDC/DAI) and buy Bitcoin put options ($75K strike price).

2. Industry Survival Rules

   • Breaking Policy Dependence: Trump’s 31% promise fulfillment rate urges shifting from "regulatory arbitrage" to intrinsic tech value, e.g., DeFi protocols integrating traditional finance.
   • Prioritizing Innovation: Ethereum Layer2, AI agents, and DePIN’s real-world adoption will define competitiveness, avoiding homogeneous blockchain bubbles.

3. Global Landscape Predictions

   • U.S.-China Rivalry Escalates: U.S. crypto hegemony pressures China’s digital finance space, countered by China’s digital yuan and blockchain autonomy.
   • Tech Standard Wars: ZKP and Layer2 become strategic battlegrounds, while EU’s MiCA framework may create new barriers.

                                                                               X: @BCW_Daniel