🌪️ Core Forecast for BTC Trends

Short Term (1-3 Months):

Current Price: $113,953, down 8% from July's high

Key Levels: Support at $111,950 (break below may lead to a drop to $107,300), Resistance at $115,200 (break above may target $118,300)

Catalysts: September rate cut expectations, ETF fund flows shifting

Mid-term (through 2026):

Bull market fundamentals intact: Halving effect taking hold (peak typically occurs 12-18 months after halving), institutional ETF holdings continuing to grow

Target divergence: Fundstrat forecasts $250,000 (institutional demand surge), Bernstein forecasts $200,000 (mining company expansion)

Risk warnings:

Tech stock corrections dragging down the market, policy interventions exacerbating volatility

If inflation rebounds or geopolitical conflicts escalate, prices may plummet below 100,000
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Operational Guidelines:

Short-term trading: Go long above 115,200, stop loss below 111,950; buy low and sell high within the range

Long-term holding: Add positions in batches at 107,300/100,000, focusing on BTC ETFs and the hash rate chain

Pathway outlook:
60% probability of reaching 120,000 by the end of Q3 → 150,000–180,000 by year-end;
40% probability of a deep correction followed by a new high in 2026.
Monitor three signals: Federal Reserve decision, ETF weekly inflows, and the validity of breaking above 116,400.