China's Mega-Dam on the Brahmaputra: A Game-Changer for Tibet, India, and Bangladesh

China has embarked on an ambitious project to construct the world’s largest hydropower dam on the Yarlung Tsangpo River, known as the Brahmaputra in India and Jamuna in Bangladesh. Located in Tibet’s Medog County, near the Indian border, this $167 billion megastructure has sparked global attention due to its potential to reshape geopolitics, water security, and the environment in South Asia. With a planned capacity of 60,000 megawatts—three times that of the Three Gorges Dam—this project is not just an engineering marvel but a strategic move with far-reaching implications. This article explores the dam’s purpose, its potential impacts, and the concerns it raises for downstream nations like India and Bangladesh.

The Yarlung Tsangpo Mega-Dam: Scope and Ambition

The Yarlung Tsangpo, originating in the glaciers of western Tibet, flows through the Himalayas, carving the world’s deepest canyon before entering India’s Arunachal Pradesh and Bangladesh. The dam, approved in December 2024 and officially under construction as of July 2025, is set to harness the river’s immense hydropower potential at the “Great Bend,” where the river makes a dramatic U-turn. The project involves building five cascade power stations and drilling four to six 20-kilometer-long tunnels through the Namcha Barwa mountain to divert roughly half the river’s flow. Once completed, it is expected to generate 300 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually, enough to power over 300 million people.

China touts the dam as a cornerstone of its carbon neutrality goals by 2060, aiming to reduce reliance on fossil fuels while boosting economic development in Tibet. The electricity generated will primarily be transmitted to other parts of China, with some meeting local needs in the Tibet Autonomous Region. The project’s scale, with an estimated investment of 1.2 trillion yuan ($167 billion), surpasses any other infrastructure endeavor, including China’s own Three Gorges Dam.

Geopolitical Implications: A "Water Bomb" for India?

The dam’s location, just 30 kilometers from the Indian border, has raised alarms in New Delhi. The Brahmaputra is a lifeline for India’s northeastern states, particularly Arunachal Pradesh and Assam, supporting 130 million people and six million hectares of farmland. Indian officials, including Arunachal Pradesh Chief Minister Pema Khandu, have labeled the dam a “ticking water bomb,” fearing China could manipulate water flows to cause floods or droughts. The absence of China as a signatory to international water-sharing treaties, such as the UN’s watercourses convention, heightens concerns about its unilateral control over the river.

India has responded by planning a 10-gigawatt counter-dam on the Siang River, a tributary of the Brahmaputra, to create buffer storage and mitigate potential disruptions. However, this has sparked protests among local Adi tribal communities, who view the river as sacred and fear ecological and cultural devastation. The dam also complicates India-China relations, already strained by border disputes in the Himalayas. A 2020 Lowy Institute report warned that China’s control over Tibetan rivers gives it a “chokehold” on India’s economy, potentially weaponizing water as a geopolitical tool.

Environmental and Ecological Risks

The Yarlung Tsangpo Grand Canyon, where the dam is being built, is one of the world’s most biodiverse regions, home to unique ecosystems and nearly 218 fish species, including economically vital ones like Hilsa and Mahseer. Environmentalists warn that the dam could disrupt sediment transport, reduce soil fertility, and alter fish migration patterns, threatening the livelihoods of two million fishermen in India and Bangladesh. The project’s location on a seismically active tectonic plate boundary, prone to earthquakes and landslides, raises further concerns. The 1950 Assam-Tibet earthquake, with a magnitude of 8.6, struck just 300 miles away, highlighting the risk of catastrophic failure.

In Bangladesh, where 70% of the population lives in the Brahmaputra basin, a mere 5% reduction in river flow could lead to a 15% drop in agricultural output, exacerbating food insecurity and salinity intrusion in coastal areas. The Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta, critical for agriculture and fishing, faces risks of erosion and reduced fertility due to sediment trapping by the dam.

Tibet’s Local Impact: Displacement and Cultural Loss

The dam’s construction in Medog County, a sparsely populated area with 14,000 residents, will likely displace local communities, though China has not disclosed exact figures. The Three Gorges Dam displaced 1.4 million people, and similar concerns arise here. Tibetan activists argue that the project threatens sacred sites, as the Yarlung Tsangpo is revered as the body of the goddess Dorje Pagmo. China’s history of building dams in Tibet—193 since 2000, with 80% being large or mega-sized—has drawn criticism for exploiting Tibetan resources and suppressing local dissent. In early 2025, protests against another Tibetan dam, the Gangtuo hydropower plant, led to arrests and injuries, underscoring tensions.

China’s Strategic Motives

Beyond energy production, the dam enhances China’s hydro-hegemony in South Asia. By controlling the Brahmaputra’s flow, China gains leverage over downstream nations, potentially using water as a bargaining chip in diplomatic or military disputes. Some reports suggest China may divert water to its arid northern regions, such as the Gobi Desert, as part of the South-North Water Transfer Project, further reducing downstream flows. This aligns with China’s broader strategy of using dams on rivers like the Mekong and Indus to assert dominance over neighboring countries.

Pakistan, a close ally of China, views the dam as a strategic advantage, potentially weakening India’s regional influence. Meanwhile, India and Bangladesh are pushing for legally binding water-sharing agreements to ensure transparency and equitable distribution, though China’s refusal to engage in multilateral frameworks complicates these efforts.

Engineering Challenges and China’s Claims

The dam’s construction is a monumental engineering feat, requiring tunnels through seismically unstable terrain and advanced safety measures. Chinese officials claim decades of geological studies ensure the project’s safety and minimal environmental impact. They argue the dam will reduce peak flood flows and prioritize ecological protection. However, independent experts remain skeptical, citing the lack of transparency and the region’s geological volatility. A 7.1-magnitude earthquake in January 2025 damaged several Tibetan dams, highlighting the risks.

The Road Ahead: Diplomacy or Conflict?

The Brahmaputra dam has intensified calls for regional cooperation. India and China have an Expert Level Mechanism (ELM) since 2006 for sharing hydrological data during flood seasons, but its scope is limited. Experts advocate for a bioregional approach to protect the Himalayan river systems, emphasizing scientific studies and international pressure to counter China’s unilateral actions. India’s counter-dam and diplomatic protests signal a readiness to confront the issue, but without binding agreements, tensions may escalate into a “water war.”

Bangladesh, heavily dependent on the Brahmaputra for agriculture and fisheries, faces similar risks. Both nations must navigate a delicate balance of asserting their rights while avoiding outright conflict with China. Collaborative frameworks, backed by global support, could mitigate the dam’s downstream impacts and preserve the fragile Himalayan ecosystem.

Conclusion

China’s mega-dam on the Yarlung Tsangpo is a bold step toward energy dominance and regional influence, but it comes at a steep cost. For India and Bangladesh, it poses risks to water security, agriculture, and ecosystems, while Tibet faces displacement and cultural erosion. The project underscores the need for transparent, multilateral water governance in South Asia. As construction progresses, the world watches to see whether diplomacy or conflict will shape the future of the Brahmaputra, a river that sustains millions across borders.

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Sources:

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