The Next 72 Hours: Crypto Market Faces Its “Critical Moment” — 5 Key Events to Watch
Do you feel it? The entire crypto market is like a predator holding its breath, poised to pounce, quietly waiting for a signal. And that signal — it could appear in the next three days.
The Fed, Hong Kong’s Monetary Authority, Trump, non-farm payrolls, GDP growth, and Big Tech earnings… It’s as if every heavyweight picked late July and early August as the moment to unleash their big moves.
From price consolidation and capital inflows to regulatory clarity, the next 72 hours could be the dividing line that determines the path of the crypto market for the second half of 2025. We are no longer in a “wait-and-see” zone — this is a true inflection point with market-moving power.
Here are the 5 key events you can’t afford to miss
1.）The Fed Meeting: One Word Could Ignite the Market
On July 31, the Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest rate decision. While markets widely expect a “hold,” the real focus isn’t on whether the Fed cuts now — but whether it signals a cut ahead.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference will be the centerpiece. A single dovish hint — suggesting a September rate cut — could trigger an immediate risk-on reaction.
Current data:
CME FedWatch shows a 96.9% probability of no change in July.
Markets are pricing a ~65% chance of a September cut.
Implications for crypto:
Hold rates: Market remains neutral; BTC likely consolidates.
Hints of a cut: Could trigger early capital inflows; BTC may test new highs.
Rate cut cycle: A full pivot to easing would be a powerful long-term tailwind for risk assets, especially crypto.
2）Trump’s Tariff Policy Launch: A Signal for Risk or Safe Haven Flows
On August 1, Trump’s new tariff plan will officially take effect. This isn’t a minor adjustment — it’s a sweeping redefinition of trade flows, imposing 15%-20% tariffs on most global exporters, including the EU.
Potential ripple effects on crypto:
USD volatility: Trade tensions could prompt short-term capital inflows to the U.S., strengthening the dollar (short-term bearish for crypto).
Global risk aversion: Equity market stress may push safe-haven flows into Bitcoin and stablecoins.
Rising demand for stablecoins in cross-border trade: Tariff-induced uncertainty in traditional settlement could accelerate stablecoin adoption.
Major banks like Morgan Stanley and UBS are already developing stablecoin-based cross-border solutions — regulatory and geopolitical shifts often act as the catalyst for financial infrastructure changes.
3）Hong Kong Stablecoin Regulations Go Live: Asia’s Market Shake-Up
Also on August 1, Hong Kong’s Stablecoin Ordinance takes effect — one of the world’s first fully operational regulatory frameworks for stablecoins and Asia’s first “hands-on” rulebook.
Key features:
6-month transitional period for existing issuers.
Strict AML, reserve verification, and licensing rules.
Clear market line: Licensed players stay; unlicensed projects exit.
Market impact:
Compliant issuers like Circle (USDC) will benefit immediately.
Hong Kong financial institutions could seize the opportunity to enter the stablecoin space.
Non-compliant projects will be purged, triggering a market “clean-up effect.”
This move also sets a precedent for Singapore, Japan, and South Korea, potentially accelerating Asia’s stablecoin market reshuffle in the coming months.
4）U.S. Q2 GDP: A Positive Surprise
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that Q2 GDP grew 3% annualized, sharply rebounding from Q1’s -0.5% contraction and beating the 2.6% market forecast.
Core PCE inflation slowed to 2.5% (from 3.5%), but remains slightly above expectations.
Strong GDP growth signals ongoing economic expansion, which is risk-asset bullish — crypto included.
In short: macro data is supportive, providing a tailwind for market sentiment.
5）U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls: Will a Weak Report Trigger a Rate-Cut Bet?
July’s non-farm payrolls report, due Friday, is a critical data point for the Fed’s next move.
Market expectations:
Job growth slows below 100k.
Unemployment ticks up to ~4.2%.
If the labor market weakens:
September rate cut bets will strengthen.
Combined with Powell’s dovish tone, BTC and ETH could see a short-term surge, with liquidity flowing into risk assets.
Summary: A Pause Before the Storm
The next 72 hours are the calm before the storm. The market appears quiet, but variables are piling up across:
Macro policy (Fed, Trump tariffs)
Regulation (Hong Kong stablecoin regime)
Economic signals (GDP, non-farm payrolls)
How to position:
Stay flexible: Avoid all-in moves; maintain agile positions.
Watch 3 core triggers: Powell’s remarks, NFP data, Hong Kong stablecoin developments.
Monitor capital flows & on-chain data: USDT premium and BTC active addresses can hint at smart money moves.
If H1 2025 was the “policy fog,” H2 2025 is the period of clarity. And these three days may be the watershed moment that defines the market’s next major trend.
