I'm in exactly the same position. I see conflicting analysis about the markets all over. There are some really good, and convincing posts as well. I'm kinda figuring things out as I go as well, and see what historical data matches the analysis of their previous predictions. Mostly I'm trying to hold on as long as I can without panic selling on the downs. If I look at my early trades, what I sold then would be worth a tidy sum today... all part of learning though.