Review HardFork 21 Changes to author/curator rewards and effect on average users and bidbots.
Review HardFork 22 Changes to author/curator rewards and effect on average users and bidbots.
Background:
There have been detailed posts from @steemitblog about the changes in HardFork 21, which now appears to be less then two weeks or less than 14 days away from implementation. The main changes of importance to average users are of course to author/curator rewards and linear rewards curve.
First, the change from 75/25 to 50/50 split between authors and curators.
This topic should be split into effect on users and effect on bidbots.
Users
The change from 75/25 to 50/50 split between authors and curators means you get as much from curation as you do from authorship, so if you want to maintain your current author rewards you will need to write 33% more or figure out how to curate twice as much, to maintain your income. Since curation or reading posts takes less time then reading posts, I suspect that curation will become a much more prevalent activity on the platform. But curation rewards depend not just on your efforts, but it’s a competition based on time of vote and amount of SP. I suspect that for average users comment author rewards will become more valuable as the competition for article curation rewards intensified. Engagement in the form of comments will remain lucrative due to smaller number of votes and therefore larger share of the reward.
bidbots
The change from 75/25 to 50/50 split between authors and curators means you get as much from curation as you do from authorship. This means, that the vote value from voting bot has to be at least twice of the payment - otherwise the user who requested the vote will loose money (negative ROI). Now right now with 75/25 the bidbot customer or vote buyer needs to get a vote at least x 1.33 times the amount of the payment to make a profit using the vote sellers because author gets 0.75 of the vote, 1/0.75=1.33). This means that with a 50/50 split the vote buyer has to get a vote two times the amount paid just to break even. So to provide positive ROI, the voting service has to give higher upvotes for the same price. This means less income and profit for the investors. But the bidbots normally get a large share of curation, so it may help the investors and it may provide enough Steem to make higher upvotes, but the bidbot needs to decide how to limit bidding to insure positive ROI or risk a large loss in business. The “wild card” or unknow factor is the downvote. If people start downvoting post rewards generated by bidbots this could create a scenario of consistent negative return on investment for vote buyers. This would be difficult to combat.
Conclusion;
The HardFork 21 will require a change in posting behavior on Steemit as author rewards drop 33% and curator rewards increase by 100%. There will most likely be a shift in posters efforts away from posting to curating. There will also be adverse effects on bidbot earnings, which will require higher votes and potentially restricting the number of votes purchased during any 2.4 hour cycle to guarantee a positive roi. Other wise the negative roi could drive businesses away from bidbots. The factor we can’t calculate right now is the impact free downvotes will have on our ecosystem. Hang onto your popcorn folks it’s about to get interesting.
✍🏼 by Shortsegments
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Hello, @shortsegments. Thank you for using the realityhubs tag. The HARDFORK time is fast approaching and I can not wait to see it happens. I only hope that nothing terrible happens during the time of the HF. That is said, on the content side of your review, I found some incorrect information which I suggest you fix. The Steemit Inc official account is @steemitblog, not @steemitblogger. I am not sure which account this is "@steendeveloper" but what I am sure is that it does not belong to the steemit team.
It is very very important to you verify everything you publish with the appropriate citation to avoid misleading information. I found other few incorrect information but I believe if you go through it you might notice them. Please kindly understand that this is constructive feedback and not an attack. I look forward to seeing your next review on realityhubs.
Cheers!
RealityHubs Mod
Hi, @knowledges.
Thank you for your feedback. I appreciate you reviewing my post and pointing out the errors.
I have corrected the errors.
Dear @shortsegments
Interesting choice of topic. Very hot in current days :)
I'm very curious how HF21 will change culture on Steemit. There surely will be less authors (many made it already clear that they lost their faith in Steemit).
delegating SP
At the same time delegating SP will be more profitable, right? Right now all those who receive delegations will be earning 100% more. So those bots will be also able to offer much better conditions than they did so far.
bidbots
I fully agree with you. Demand for bidbots may drop greately. I wonder if all those bidbots would start powerding down and shutting down, then would it create some serious selling pressure? Any thoughts on that?
So I would assume, that bidbots may have a difficult time (there isn't many of them left anyway). Also that there will be less content and less people curating manualy (and more delegating their SP as a passive income).
I'm mostly worried about non-linear rewards curve. IT seem that upvoting comments with small 0.03$ upvotes will be to costly right now. So culture of rewarding comments will die :(
Upvote on the way :)
Yours,
Piotr
I think the bidbot owners will adapt to survive. The bidbot owners will most likely change the minimum upvote to twice the amount paid, with an additional 15% possible depending on the amount of votes during that round. I think they can make this change and still be profitable due to the doubling of curation rewards. Since bidbots have high SP and frequently high Rep, they will earn a substantial amount after HF21. The new downvote pool is the unknown element here. We don’t know how it will be used yet.
Late thank you for your reply @shortsegments
ps.
Would you mind sharing with me what's your impression so far after latest forks? One week after hf21 and hf21 has been introduced?
ps.
Check out my latest publication..
It brought some real emotions. I've been downvoted by over half million SP (attack of few accounts), however I also received solid support and few strong upvotes and now I will be enjoying the biggest genuine payout in my lifetime ;)
Yours, Piotr
Read Article
https://www.realityhubs.com/dapps/@shortsegments/steem-is-the-queen-of-dapp-s-in-cryptocurrency
Hang onto your popcorn folks it’s about to get interesting.
Posted using Partiko iOS
Hello @shortsegments, nice write up I must say. However, I think you are talking about HF21, you mentioned HF22 in your article when HF21 has happened yet.
I understand that HF21 has been mentioned so many times that one would think it has happened but it hasn't. Based on Steem management post, HF21 should happen 27th August 2019 it everything goes according to plan. Cheers.
Hi @ketcom,
You are absolutely right!
I have corrected my post.
Thank you
the drop in author rewards is more like 43% as the authors are taking the hit for the SPS and then the remainder is being split. There is no way someone who is both writing and curating now can come even close to making up the difference with more curating. That is before the new curve is factored in.
People need to expect reduced rewards regardless of how much more curating they do or content creation for that matter.
I agree there are multiple other factors involved here now, as the Steem ecosystem becomes more complex.
I agree the reduced author reward is very significant and while I agree it will be very difficult to recover what was lost by effort and productivity, I prefer to never say never, all or it’s impossible. But your right for some it will be quite a big reduction in total author rewards. But here we can see that as one door closes, another door opens. On the Steem tribes I have noted that instead of using my voting power to upvote myself I have decided to upvote 20 postings a day or more. I have pleasantly surprised at the upsurge of votes from 40-50 to over 100 votes with a corresponding increase in reward. I hold this out not as a proof of concept, but as a ray of hope.
🙏🏻
yes the other tokens do stack nicely with Steem. The day will come that steem rewards will be almost non-existent and the tokens built on steem will be where the value is. When the price of Steem moves up, so too will the tokens as their value is paired with it.
I think the important thing for people to remember is that this is a marathon with few short term gains. The long term is where the reward is with this platform. I can remember earning Steem at 7cents and wondering if it was worth it. It was pretty sweet when that 7cent Steem turned into $8 ... at least for a while.