Bitcoin at a Crossroads: Correction or the End of the Bull Run?
Bitcoin's price recently bounced off the $108,000 mark. This level, crucial for market analysis, has raised a key question: are we at the end of the bull cycle or is this a simple correction? According to one analyst, the answer lies in analyzing whale selling, the macroeconomic context, and the unique structure of this cycle.
While short-term pressure could lead to a correction, the overall outlook suggests this is an opportunity, not a trend reversal.
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The Macroeconomic Context and Key Indicator
One of the main reasons for optimism is the macroeconomic context. Unlike 2021, when the Bitcoin market retreated amid high inflation and monetary tightening, today traditional indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are at all-time highs. This indicates that any price problem is specific to Bitcoin and not a reflection of a struggling global economy.
This view is reinforced by a key indicator: the "average price" of Bitcoin purchases over the last six months. Historically, whenever Bitcoin's price has tested this indicator, it has been a buying opportunity, and the current situation appears to be no different.
The Battle at 108K and Whale Selling
Despite the positive outlook, there is one significant bearish factor: whale selling. Recently, large Bitcoin holders, including wallets that hadn't moved in 12 years, have been taking profits. This massive selling is creating pressure that is preventing Bitcoin from recovering to new highs, unlike the rest of the market.
This situation is critical. If the price fails to hold above $108,000, it could be a sign of a significant retreat, with the possibility of falling to $100,000, which would represent a 20% correction.
This Cycle Is Different: The Three-Peak Structure
Unlike previous cycles, this Bitcoin rally has not been aggressive, but rather "constructive". It has been marked by three significant re-accumulation phases since 2023. The overall uptrend has developed with several peaks, each driven by a different catalyst:
- First Peak: Was driven by the 2024 halving and the arrival of Bitcoin ETFs.
- Second Peak: Was activated by optimism for a pro-crypto president and the first interest rate cuts.
- Third Peak: Is still distant, as its trigger will be the expansion of global liquidity, something that has not yet happened.
The possibility of a correction to $100,000 does not rule out a future upward movement, but it could postpone the third peak due to economic uncertainty.
The Altcoin Situation
While Bitcoin consolidates, altcoins like Ethereum and AVAX have had "mini-seasons" or small periods of growth, followed by significant retreats. Unlike Bitcoin, which has historically had a long-term upward trajectory, the movement of altcoins is more volatile and sideways. This means that, in the face of bad news or a trend reversal, these cryptos could experience a pronounced fall, so it's crucial to be cautious to avoid a massive correction in your holdings.
The recent Bitcoin pullback is a reminder that corrections are a normal part of the market. While short-term whale selling is causing concern and could take the price to $100,000, the macroeconomic context and the structure of this cycle suggest that this dip is more of an opportunity to accumulate than a sign of an impending bear market. Patience and a clear strategy will continue to be the key to navigating this market.