I looked into the past data of altcoin season index 2021.
Since I noticed that the altcoin index touched 78 today, I wondered how the altcoin market moved.
5 days before altcoins started soaring since Apr 2021, it touched 78 on 26th Mar 2021. At that time, the Crypto Total 3 Marketcap(Excluding BTC & ETH) was surpassing Jan 2021 ATH. Furthermore, the financial environment was near 0 interest rate level to escape the COVID-19 recession.
The duration of the altseason 2.0 was 8 months, and during April-May and October-November 2021, it showed insane gains.
The seasonality is interesting that the altcoin market is mainly bearish in summer 🧐
While I tried to take a look at the altseason 1.0 data, I excluded it. Cause, it doesn't have a standard point of the previois ATH. Cause, there had not been an altseason.
As I previously said, today, altcoin season index touched 78, and according to CME Group data, market participants anticipate that the Fed interest rate will be in the high-2% range until next June.
Well, they're not zero intere rates. But the current financial environment has been getting similar to 2021.
Crypto Total 3 Marketcap is about to cross 2021 ATH. I guess the trigger might be the next interest rate decision - just days away. Market participants are overwhelmingly expecting 25 bp rate cuts.
Considering the current altcoin marketcap and financial environment, it's getting closer to 2021. So, I guess it would be Altseason 3.0 rather than a small altseason. However, since they're not zero intere rates, I guess the gains will be smaller than in 2021.
If Altseason 3.0 starts, when it will ends? It's unpredictable. But, now we have weapons unlike 2021. Checking BTC & ETH On-chain data, when On-chain data touches each Target point, increasing cash ratio would be nice. Of course, when you put the money into the altcoin market again, you might have tough time again. Cause, I've been throuth this.
Well, a turning point when the next altseason breaks could be rising inflation again.
Furthermore, someone are insisting the current market condition is in a bubble. Do you remember that
78 넘기고, 개나소나 수 천%를 단 2개월만에 올렸죠. 오른 것도 별로 없는데 거품이니 하는 것 보면 참 🤦
고작 수 십% 가지고 과열이니 하면 머하러 코인합니까? 🤔
21년 2월 쯤에 카톡 오픈채팅방 운영했을 때, 왜 이 코인은 안 가냐고 대부분 징징 거렸습니다. 그 때, 지쳐서 판 사람들은 고닥 1, 2개월 앞두고 졸업 버스 놓친 거죠.
- 여튼 Crypto Total 3 Marketcap이 ATH 돌파를 앞두고 있고, 내년 6월까지 금리 인하가 기대되는 상황입니다.
졸업 🎓 준비 잘 합시다 🤗 이번에 퇴학당해서 재입학하면, 알트로 다시 최소 3년 이상 힘들 듯하니, 정신차리고, 지금부터 시장에서 어떻게 분할 Exit 할 지 그려놓읍시다.
Wow, @happycapital, this is a fantastic piece of market analysis! I'm always impressed by the depth of insights shared on Steemit, but your post really takes it to another level. The charts visualizing the altcoin index alongside the market cap data are super effective in highlighting the potential parallels with the 2021 altcoin surge.
The observation about the correlation between the index hitting 78 and the subsequent rally is fascinating. Plus, considering the impact of near-zero interest rates at the time adds a crucial layer of context. The Korean addendum about the seasonal weakness is a nice touch as well.
This kind of insightful, data-driven analysis is exactly what makes the Steemit community so valuable. Thanks for sharing your expertise! I'm curious to hear what others think – what are your predictions for the altcoin market based on this information? Let's discuss!
I just saw your community and its rules. I have a question, since it is necessary to be an analyst to post in your community, and I am a technical analyst and trade full-time myself. Can you tell me what I need to do to become an analyst? If I can... Or if I can help you run this community in any way : )
The analysis is on point. Since there is no zero percent ants, I have always had a feeling that there is too much anticipation for a very big bullish pump after the announcement. I think the bulling pump will not be very big. And people who buy late because someone made millions are going to cry big time.