The Coming Housing Decline and Collapse and Crash and Disintegration
I don't think we have ever seen this many warning signs, while the pundits still say that the housing market is ok. And, i don't mean a few warning signs like the lead up to 2008.
- Inventories are way up
- New houses are selling at a discount from old houses.
- Foreclosures are up
- ICE is emptying out homes
- Mortgage creation rates are too low for banks to survive.
- Huge layoffs, and nationally, wages are going down.
- Only the rich can afford to buy a house at today's prices.
According to these pieces of data, we are in for a housing decline. Probably 50% buy December this year.
And this is just the beginning. These data points are just the tip of the iceberg.
You can't argue with demographics
The biggest generation in history is about to dump their houses onto the market.
The boomers own 25% of the houses in America, and over 40% of the housing value.
And, an even bigger problem is that the younger generations do not have the means to buy this coming deluge of inventory. So, the market is going to HUGE inventories, with few buyers. And remember, many boomers have more than one house. There is not enough numbers to fill up these houses, and no one with funds to buy them.
We are going to see the first ever, world wide, change from a "not enough houses" to a world with "too many houses".
The entire premise of real estate always goes up, is that demographics has always been going up. Until now.
You can't sell a house when everyone already has a house.
Cities are becoming hell holes
Cities have never been a good place for people. Millions of close acquaintances, but few friends.
And now, with the economy getting worse, there has appeared more crime, more drugs and more homeless. On top of that there are fewer jobs, fewer good paying jobs, more layoffs. The entire reason to live in a city is disappearing.
When those mother WEFers start playing their food shortage shenanigans, cities are going to be dangerous places to be.
Even the entertainment/night life is drying up. So many restaurants closing. Movie theaters closing. Malls closing.
There is becoming fewer and fewer reasons to stay in a large city.
And, i often write about "Get Out of the Cities". There is going to be so many empty houses, that there won't exist a real estate market. Can you sell something, when its value is nothing?
Banks closing/collapsing and Changes to the idea of Real Estate
Banks make money by making money. This means if they are not creating mortgages or car loans, they are collapsing. Banks have to create more loans than the loans defaulting/being paid off. Think of it as a balloon with a hole in it. You have to keep blowing more air into it, at least as much as is leaking out.
While the banks are drying up (and the central banks have planned this small/medium sized bank destruction) there is a change happening in the younger generation.
The idea of buying a house, like their parents did, is WAY out of their reach. So far that many have just given up on it. Even tiny houses are out of reach for many. Living with their parents, living in a van, living in houses with more than one person per bedroom, this is the normal for the younger generations. And when the young cannot find a place within society, they will burn it down.
Rent controls will be tried again, AND FAIL. Causing people to come up with new ideas about property ownership.
The ideas of "Real Estate" (the king's estate) will go away. Property will become, not owned, but who is currently taking care of it. Also, when people do not need to live in cities, because they can work from anywhere, we find that there is lots and lots of open land. BLM land will be given away to people in need of a homestead, in the future, as it becomes apparent that what people need is not rent control, but their own property.
Basically, we are going to get NFT real estate just as real estate, the concept, goes away. There will be no more real estate market.
The thing that really destroys the current housing market and paradigm is that we find single family homes to be the most stupid way to live/build a home. Besides our current house building practices being crap, building crap houses with no attention being given to passive cooling, understanding sun paths, fitting with the terrain, being comfortable without central air… we will finally start paying attention to the details that make a house a good living environment.
In the future we will live with our "families"/tribes (group of people that get us) and this is what really destroys the housing market. Who needs a single family home, when you want to live with your closest 100 friends? The single family home, in no way, serves the needs of future.
House prices, especially suburban houses, will go down and down and down.
We will probably see some heavily publicized upticks, but there will be no "investment" real estate anymore. It is all downhill from here, until the entire concept of "real estate" goes away.
(and investors are wising up, seeing that bitcoin has outperformed rentals returns without any of the hassle)