The Plunge of Hong Kong Stablecoin Concept Stocks: The Aftershock of a “Gap in Expectations” as Regulation Lands
In capital markets, every regulatory move can trigger a butterfly effect. On August 1, as the Stablecoin Ordinance officially came into effect in Hong Kong, the previously feverish market sentiment was doused with a bucket of cold water — stablecoin concept stocks that had been heavily favored by capital collectively plunged. In the Hong Kong stock market, a slew of “star stocks” like Emperor Securities Finance, Yunfeng Financial, and OKG Technology saw sharp drops; even Shenzhen-listed Sifang Jingchuang wasn’t spared.
Many investors were left baffled: Isn’t regulatory implementation supposed to be a good thing? Why are stock prices moving the other way? Behind this lies a cooling logic dominated by a “gap in expectations.”
This article will break down the real reasons behind the correction from the following angles —
Why did market sentiment shift so quickly as stablecoin policy moved from expectation to reality?
Why are “slow licensing, limited licenses, and strict regulation” the core shock factors?
Who might still laugh till the end? A speculative look at the institutions most likely to get licensed first
Does the stablecoin concept still have room for imagination in the future?
The Past Frenzy: Did Concept Stocks Surge on Just “an Idea”?
Since the Stablecoin Ordinance was passed in May, the Hong Kong market seemingly entered a “year one of stablecoins.” For a while, “stablecoin” became the keyword. As long as a company was even remotely related — even if it had nothing to do with blockchain — it could be pumped to the moon by hot money. A classic case was Duodian Shuzhi, which in early July soared nearly 90% in a single day just for saying, “We’re preparing to apply for a stablecoin license.” Hang Seng Electronics even hit limit up over an unverified rumor of a “stablecoin collaboration.”
In just over two months, Hong Kong-listed OKG Technology rose more than 185%, Emperor Securities Finance was up 86%, and Yunfeng Financial jumped over 55%. The stablecoin index in the A-share market also saw over a 25% rally.
This reveals just how optimistic the market was about the idea of “license = monetization.” However, when policy actually lands, this kind of “self-imagined” rally is often the most prone to backlash from reality.
Regulatory Details Land: Rational Regulation vs. Irrational Sentiment, Market Was Bound to Shake
On August 1, the Stablecoin Ordinance officially took effect, but unexpectedly, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) didn’t release any major favorable announcements — instead, it quietly published the full licensing regime back on July 29.
If the market’s prior fervor was based on “betting on regulatory dividends,” then the current decline is the result of betting in the wrong direction. Specifically, the core reasons for this “letdown in expectations” can be summed up as:
Licensing will be far later than market expectations
The market thought the first batch of licenses would be issued as early as August, but HKMA clearly stated the earliest will be in early 2026 — stretching the expected payoff more than 18 months out. For many speculative funds, this means “the good news is nowhere near materializing.”Regulatory thresholds far higher than expected
HKMA made it clear that stablecoin issuers must not only have real application scenarios but also comprehensive capabilities in tech, security, compliance, and AML. In particular, the requirement that “every token holder’s identity must be verified” under AML standards goes far beyond traditional blockchain notions of freedom.
This means many companies that jumped on the hype bandwagon simply don’t qualify to apply, let alone obtain a license.
Licenses will be extremely scarce: only single digits in the first batch
HKMA officials have repeatedly stated that licensing will be extremely cautious at first, with only a single-digit number of licenses to be granted. To the market, that’s tantamount to an early verdict that most companies will be locked out. Once investors realize their “favored” company likely won’t get a license, selling becomes the natural reaction.Two rounds of “cooling comments” from regulators made sentiment hit the brakes
In fact, HKMA already tried to cool things down twice, in June and July, with articles warning that stablecoin market discussions had become “excessively speculative.” The message from regulators was very clear: control first, then develop — speculation will not be tolerated.
Unfortunately, markets rarely listen — until they’re finally confronted with the “cold, hard licensing plan.”
Despite the Decline, Who Still Has a Chance to Win the First Batch?
Although prices have corrected, this doesn’t mean the stablecoin story is over. On the contrary, the establishment of a regulatory framework means this industry is truly entering the right track — from chaos to order.
So the question is: which institutions are most likely to stand out and win a license? Based on publicly available info and industry analysis, the following types of institutions are generally favored:
Real Scenarios + Mature Tech: Ant Group, JD.com
Ant Group has a strong cross-border payment network and deep blockchain foundations, already exploring RWA applications. Reportedly, both its Ant International and Ant Digital Tech units are preparing license applications. JD.com has entered stage two of the regulatory sandbox and has practical scenarios in online payments, investment trading, and retail.
These companies not only have the tech, but also broad use cases — aligning with HKMA’s standard of “real-world feasibility.”
- Veteran Financial Players: Bank of China (HK), Standard Chartered
As two of Hong Kong’s note-issuing banks, these institutions are pillars of the regulatory system.
Standard Chartered has confirmed its entry into the stablecoin sandbox and is expected to leverage its banking background and risk control to land a spot in the first batch.
BoC HK hasn’t made public comments, but its stature suggests it’s likely advancing things quietly.
- Tech Innovators: RD Technologies
This company aims to issue HKDR, a Hong Kong dollar stablecoin on Ethereum, and is considered a potential first-tier player. The CEO has repeatedly spoken to the media about their application and testing progress, showing a high level of readiness.
From Bubble to Value: What Will Act Two of the Stablecoin Story Look Like?
After this plunge, stablecoin-related stocks may begin to diverge: short-term theme-driven players will gradually exit, while companies with real tech and scenarios will gain recognition. From this regulatory implementation, we learn two key lessons:
▶ Stablecoins are not “get-rich coins”
Their true function lies in cross-border payment efficiency, financial inclusion, and settlement convenience. Yes, some companies may indeed grow big from this — but not by “shouting slogans.”
▶ Hong Kong’s regulation = slow but steady
Unlike the U.S., which often goes from unregulated to chaos to harsh clampdowns, Hong Kong has clearly opted for a “strict first, pilot later” path. While this rhythm is unfriendly in the short term, it’s far more conducive to building a long-term ecosystem.
▶ Investing should focus on fundamentals, not just themes
Every new policy or technology is worth watching — but shouldn’t become the sole pillar of a trading thesis. The longevity of the stablecoin concept depends on companies’ real technical reserves, scenario implementation capabilities, and business models — not just “whether they said they’re doing it.”
Conclusion: After the Cooldown, Those Who Remain Deserve More Attention
The market’s enthusiasm for stablecoins was cooled by policy — a collective correction driven by the gap between expectation and reality. But as a crucial bridge between blockchain and traditional finance, stablecoins still hold long-term value. From here on, attention should shift from “concept” to “execution”:
Who has the hard-core tech?
Who can actually issue a Hong Kong dollar stablecoin?
Who has access to real cross-border use cases?
Who truly understands the logic of Hong Kong’s regulation?
That’s the real investment trail. After all, once the hype fades, what remains is what’s truly worth betting on for the long run.
