Housing Bubble? The Housing Market Has Fallen Off a cliff.

in #house6 years ago

Today is simultaneously the best time to buy rental properties and the worst time to buy a house.

Everyone knows that housing is in a bubble.
And everyone is seeing a slowdown in house sales.

But, no one is talking about the utter and complete destruction of the housing market.

  • Baby boomers are being forced to retire (often with a grave stone) and this will come with largest dump on the market of houses. As the baby boomers move to retirement homes, care facilities or grave yards. Normally, they would have retired a while ago, but most couldn't. So, there has been no one moving up in companies. (this will be important later) And they are still holding onto their houses (their biggest investment - NOT)

  • There is no up and coming generation. That means no buyers of houses. Millennials are looking at tiny houses, because the suburban baby boomer houses are way out of their price range. Further, these new generations aren't drawn to the suburbs. They are looking at rebuilt downtown areas or rural places.

  • Telecommuting and e-commerce can be done from anywhere. Why stay in a high priced, bad school area? There is a growing field of workers that aren't tied to the city.

  • Ice-age and fuel shortage. We are at the beginning of an ice-age, and we are about to start seeing some VERY cold winters. Along with this, there are a lot of countries that are starting to get cars. And that means we will start to seeing higher fuel prices while seeing more need for heating fuel. Add to that the damage that will be caused if war breaks out with Iran, and we will see the heating of you typical cracker-jack stick frame house become untenable. Sure you can own a house, but if you can't afford the heat, you can't liver there.

  • Most of the housing price increase has been by banks lowering down payment requirements and interest while extending mortgage lengths. So, the buyer can afford more house with the same monthly payment. However, going from 4% to 3% is no where near the benefits banks got from going from 14% to 13%. And the banks do not have much wiggle room in duration. Lastly, there aren't any good non-sub-prime lenders to lend to.

And there is more that can be added to this list.
It all spells out a market with lots of sellers and NO buyers.

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However, in areas where there is an increase in jobs, there will be a lot of people looking to rent.
They can't afford to buy, but they have to live somewhere while working.
And so, buying cheap fixeruppers in growing job market areas is a good prospect while the slow motion housing train wreck happens.

We will see a collapse of banks as mortgages become unpayable. First the little banks, and then the medium sized ones. So, mortgage lenders will become scarce pretty quickly

Along with this an ever increasing amount of houses for sale in job poor areas will be seen.

So, lots of houses for sale and no one able to buy them.
And no one wanting to buy them.

(except for people that invested in cryptos)

- - - - - - -

When you take your crypto profits, look at buying/building an earthship.
Passive solar heating is going to be of paramount importance.

And, yes this means there are going to be roving gangs of people who go through abandoned housing developments looking for anything recyclable.

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All images in this post are my own original creations.

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Here in Wellington NZ, the houses are still "worth" around $1 million a pop, but holy crap it's getting colder fast.

The fact that the glaciers are growing rapidly in NZ is very well covered up!

Fox Glacier New Zealand – 2007

Fox Glacier New Zealand – 2014

Wow, that glacier change is pretty crazy! It will be interesting to see how climate change impacts economies, life and even real estate as heating a home will likely increase with demand going higher based on need.

Glad I do rental properties, thats about the only positive in builder's post.

I really should do more positive posts...

ummm, well, energy efficient house building will be on the rise!

Well it's good for the ski season!

So, the fluffy white sheep, of NZ, we all hear about is to camouflage the "fluffy" white glaciers?

hmmmmm >_>

Lol love the moving into graveyards.

Rental properties is where it’s at; lots of people don’t realize that spending an extra 500$ a month for a mortgage is better than renting for 5 years but saving 500$ a month and having nothing to show of it after.

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A stick building can be built to a pretty high efficiency number. What R-Value rating do you think would be necessary to make a structure cost effective to heat with the winters you're anticipating?

It really isn't about an R-value. Unless the structure was small enough to heat by body heat.

What is necessary is passive solar heating.
So, south facing sunlight accumulators and heat sinks.

And it is really hard to compare R-values to a below ground house that stays 60° all by itself.

But, it is possible to make an active solar heating with water heating panels on the roof and radiant floor heating/earth heat sink.

To answer your question, you would need about 12" of glass or foam insulation.

I took a college class back in the 90's that focused on environmentally sustainable energy use. The teacher was one of the few who had real world experience about what he was teaching. He told us about a house he built with an R-value over 100, and this was with tech that was available back in the 80's. He said you could heat it in the winter by turning on all the incandescent lights in the house. When he first built it, it was too tight though. Taking a shower resulted in condensation raining down from the ceiling in the whole house. He had to drill holes in parts of the structure to let it breathe. I think if it was cold enough that that level of insulation wasn't enough, the area wouldn't be habitable long-term and I'd move closer to the equator at that point.

As the baby boomers move to retirement homes, care facilities or grave yards.

LOL, I'm going to hell for laughing at that.
Move to the graveyard, wtf.


Personally, I wouldn't want to be tied down by owning property. I already see crypto as a superior store of value. I prefer to have the option of traveling anywhere on a whim.

Me and God are pretty good buds, and he really does have a sense of humour. I am pretty sure you ain't going to hell. (or, ima joining you too)

I too would not sell cryptos to buy land right now.
Soon, people will be giving away land for a pittance of a bitcoin.

I wonder if the bitcoin i made last year from faucets will buy a house in the near future?
That is hard for my mind to fathom,
but it isn't that hard to compute given the house prices in say, Detroit, and the bare minimum level that this bull run is going to reach