Tencent’s ​2024 financial performance

in #invest4 days ago

Tencent’s 2024 Net Profit Grows 41%, Stock Price Surges 43% — Is the Valuation Still Cheap?​​

In 2024, Tencent’s net profit (non-IFRS profit attributable to equity holders) reached ​222.7 billion yuan, a ​41.2% year-on-year increase, hitting a record high!

At the same time, Tencent’s stock price rose from ​HKD 290.2 to​ HKD 417​ at the close of December 31, 2024 — a ​43.7% surge​ for the year!

With Tencent’s net profit growing ​41.2%​​ and its stock price surging ​43.7%​, is its valuation still cheap?

To answer this question, we need to carefully examine Tencent’s ​2024 financial report.

  1. Key Financial Metrics Analysis​

1.1 ​Profit Growth Far Outpaces Revenue Growth​

Understanding Tencent’s various profit metrics is the ​first challenge​ in reading its financial reports. Each metric has pros and cons, and none can be directly used to calculate the actual P/E ratio.

If we want to observe the profit growth of Tencent’s actual business operations, ​operating profit​ is a good indicator — it was newly added in 2023.

Tencent’s ​2024 revenue, gross profit, and operating profit​ grew by ​8.4%, 19.15%, and 30%​, respectively. The ​incremental growth​ indicates ​high operational efficiency.

1.2 Significant Gross Margin Expansion Across All Three Major Businesses​

Tencent’s three major businesses in 2024 — Value-Added Services (VAS), Marketing Serivces, and Business Services — all saw ​revenue growth and margin expansion:

VAS (Games & Social Networks)​: Revenue up ​9.9%​, with domestic games growing ​10%​​ and international games up ​9%​.

​Marketing Serivces: Revenue surged ​20%​, the fastest-growing segment.

Business Services: Revenue growth ​12%​, with gross margin improving by ​7 percentage points.

Overall, Tencent’s ​gross margin rose from 48% to 53%​, a ​very high level.

Tencent’s business model has another advantage: ​diversification. While its financial report divides operations into three segments, it effectively operates ​five distinct businesses:

​Games​
​Social Networks​
​Online Advertising​
​FinTech​
​Enterprise Services​
Each business has ​balanced revenue contributions​ and ​different profitability levels. Tencent is never short of ​traffic, and these five businesses represent different ​monetization methods.

Another key monetization channel is ​investments, which is the essence of Tencent’s business model.

This diversification ensures ​sustained growth, unlike competitors that rely too heavily on a single business.

1.3 ​Investment Assets Near 1 Trillion Yuan​

Tencent is often called ​​”China’s Berkshire Hathaway”​​ due to its ​massive and highly successful investment portfolio:

Book value of investment portfolio: ​817.7 billion yuan​

Fair value of investment portfolio: ​948.3 billion yuan​

2.​Highlights from the Financial Report​

​2.1 Shareholder Returns Exceed Expectations​

​2024 share repurchase: ​HK$112 billion​ (a record high).

​2024 dividends: ​HK$32 billion.Total shareholder return: ​HK$144 billion​ (~3.2% of market cap as of May 2, 2025).

Repurchase ​permanently increase intrinsic value​ and are ​more tax-efficient​ than dividends.

For ​2025, Tencent plans:

​HK$80 billion in buybacks​ (lower due to higher stock prices).
​HK$41 billion in dividends.
​Total return: ​HK$121 billion​ (~2.7% yield).
This suggests ​management still sees the stock as fairly valued or even undervalued.

​2.2 Gross Margin Jumps to 53%​​

A ​5-percentage-point increase​ in gross margin is ​significant, especially given Tencent’s already high base.

This reflects ​improved business efficiency and profitability. However, further margin expansion may be limited.

2​.3 Gaming Business Makes a Strong Comeback​

2024 gaming revenue growth: ​9.9%​​ (domestic +10%, international +9%).

The quantity of ​​”Evergreen games”​​ (high DAU & revenue) increased from ​12 to 14 ,including(

Arena Of Valor),(Game for peace),(Naruto),(Dungeon & Fighter:origin),(Crown Legends: Battlefury)and so on.

Games like Arena Of Valor(with ​100M+ DAU) benefit from:

​Network effects​ (social gaming).
​High switching costs​ (player investment).
​Strong replayability.

  1. Marketing Serivces Becomes the Growth Driver​

​2024 ad revenue growth: ​20%​​ (fastest-growing segment).

Ad gross margin: ​Up 5 percentage points to 55%​.

Tencent renamed its ad business from ​​”Online Advertising” to “Marketing Services”​, signaling a ​strategic shift.

Despite having ​massive traffic, Tencent’s ad revenue has historically lagged peers due to:

​Social apps being less ad-friendly.
​Lack of a strong e-commerce ecosystem.
​Conservative ad load policies.
However, with ​Wechat Channel, WeChat Search, Mini Programs, and AI-driven ad targeting, ad revenue could ​continue growing rapidly.

​4. AI Business

Tencent’s ​AI assistant “Yuanbao”​​ (powered by ​DeepSeek) saw ​20x DAU growth​ from February to March 2025.

​Advantages over competitors:

​Access to high-quality WeChat public account data.

Direct integration into WeChat.

Abundant GPU resources for stable service.

However, Tencent’s ​in-house AI models still lag behind DeepSeek, ChatGPT, and others. The AI race is ​far from decided, and Tencent must ​invest heavily​ to stay competitive.

​Conclusion​

Tencent’s ​2024 performance was stellar, with ​strong profit growth, margin expansion, and shareholder returns.

The ​20.5x P/E​ suggests the stock is ​fairly valued but not overpriced.

​Key risks:

​AI competition remains fierce.
​Regulatory pressures could resurface.
​Ad growth must sustain momentum.
For long-term investors, Tencent remains a ​high-quality compounder, but ​further upside depends on execution in AI and advertising.