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RE: TIB: Today I Bought (and Sold) - An Investors Journal #263 - Offshore Oil Drilling, Chemicals, Canadian Banks, Artificial Intelligence
Awesome post and awesome insight.
"I am noticing in one of my portfolios that stock lending fees are growing dramatically on stocks I am lending out. This is also telling me a lot about the state of markets - more fear means more short selling means more stock borrowing fees available."
Dramatically measured - twice as high in June as they were in May
What do you think about the US Banks? I think the tops are in for them and I'm about to short the XLF based on my most recent post.
https://steemit.com/stock/@rollandthomas/the-charts-say-sell-bank-stocks
3 charts starting with your short idea - Financials - lower lows and lower highs suggests a short.
Stripping out insurance and especially Berkshire Hathaway to banks ETF - KBE. We get a triangle with lower highs and higher lows = a level of indecision.
Now getting down to real banks that depend on interest rates and not trading and not M&A, the regionals - KRE
I see higher highs and higher lows and a MACD that is dropping but still bullish. We cannot say from technicals that regional banks are ready to cave.
As I look at banks - KBE, I cannot say they are ready to cave until I see the 0.618 and the 0.768 Fibonacci levels broken. This is the level they have been testing.
Same applies to Financials XLF testing the 0.618 again on a weekly chart.
Now there are two, maybe 3, questions that arise from the charts.
There is a 3rd question relating to trading income and M&A deal flow. All the results reported show this is going up. Maybe not the time to short the money centre banks just yet.
As to my portfolios, my most recent trade is long XLF for a bounce back to recent highs. I continue to write calls against my longs in Bank of America and Wells Fargo. I will let the market choose the exit point.