Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Complete Guide to Prediction Markets

in #kalshi • 18 hours ago

Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Complete Guide to Prediction Markets

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Kalshi vs Polymarket

Prediction markets are having a moment. In the Kalshi vs Polymarket matchup, both platforms let you trade on real-world events, but they take very different paths to get there. This guide explains how prediction markets work, then compares Kalshi and Polymarket on regulation, technology, topics, user experience, liquidity, fees, and more.

Table of Contents

What Are Prediction Markets

Prediction markets are exchanges where people trade contracts on future events. Each market is a yes or no question, for example:

“Will Candidate X win the election?”

Contract prices sit between $0 and $1. That price is the crowd’s estimate of the probability. If the event happens, “Yes” pays $1. If it does not, the contract is worth $0.

These markets move fast. When news breaks or sentiment shifts, traders buy or sell and prices update in real time. Because money is at stake, markets often aggregate information effectively.

You will find questions on politics, sports, entertainment, crypto, and the economy. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have brought this idea to a wider audience.

Kalshi vs Polymarket: The Basics

  • Kalshi
    A regulated U.S. exchange launched in 2021. It lists “event contracts” that trade in U.S. dollars. Kalshi operates under CFTC oversight and requires full identity verification for U.S. users.

  • Polymarket
    A crypto-native marketplace launched in 2020. It runs on Ethereum with Polygon for scaling and uses USDC. Trades are peer to peer on-chain, and users keep custody of funds in their own wallets. After a period of U.S. restrictions, Polymarket reentered the market in 2025 through a licensed exchange path.

In short, Kalshi feels like traditional finance. Polymarket feels like Web3.

How the Markets Work

Both platforms use binary outcome contracts.

  • On Kalshi, you buy “Yes” or “No” shares priced in cents. If “Yes” is 30¢, the crowd implies a 30 percent chance. If the event happens, you receive $1 per winning share.
  • On Polymarket, the same idea is priced between 0 and 1 USDC. You connect a wallet, hold USDC, and each trade is an on-chain transaction. Polymarket does not hold your funds.

From a user view the screens look similar. The difference is custody and execution. Kalshi matches orders in a centralized engine. Polymarket settles trades on a blockchain.

Regulation and Availability

  • Kalshi
    Fully regulated by the CFTC as a Designated Contract Market. It is U.S. focused, requires government ID and Social Security number, and offers clear rulebooks and oversight.

  • Polymarket
    Built as a global crypto platform. It restricted U.S. access after a 2022 action, then announced a return in 2025 through a licensed route. International users have generally had access where crypto is allowed.

The Kalshi vs Polymarket contrast is clear. Kalshi is U.S. first with strict compliance. Polymarket started global and crypto first, then adapted for the U.S.

Technology: Centralized vs Blockchain

  • Kalshi
    Centralized servers, USD balances, and instant matching. No gas fees. Feels like a stock or futures exchange.

  • Polymarket
    On-chain order flow on Ethereum with Polygon. Users sign transactions, pay small gas fees, and keep custody of USDC. Transparent by design.

Centralization brings speed and simplicity. Blockchain brings transparency and user control.

Markets and Topics Offered

  • Kalshi
    U.S. politics, sports like NFL and NBA, economic indicators, weather, and pop culture. Its big draws are regulated election markets and major sports.

  • Polymarket
    Global and crypto heavy. Bitcoin and crypto milestones, AI and tech rumors, international politics, conflicts, and finance. Community proposals allow rapid reaction to the news cycle.

Takeaway: Kalshi focuses on mainstream U.S. events. Polymarket spreads wider across global and crypto topics.

User Experience and Interface

  • Kalshi
    Email signup with KYC. Polished web and mobile apps. Deposit via bank transfer, debit, or crypto converted to USD through a partner. No gas fees. Feels like an online brokerage.

  • Polymarket
    Wallet based. Fund with USDC, connect MetaMask or a built in wallet, approve on-chain trades, and pay tiny gas. Feels modern and social, with market comments and a live feed.

For newcomers, Kalshi is simpler. For crypto native users, Polymarket offers more freedom.

Liquidity, Volume, and Fees

  • Kalshi fees
    About 7 percent of potential profit per trade, plus small banking fees. Liquidity supported by professional market makers and notable integrations.

  • Polymarket fees
    No platform trading fees. You pay blockchain gas fees and any on-ramp costs. Liquidity is community driven and can surge during major news.

Both platforms have posted very large volumes during peak cycles. Polymarket often leads during global and crypto heavy news. Kalshi spikes during U.S. elections and sports seasons.

Community and Reputation

  • Kalshi
    Backed by well known investors. Covered as a serious, regulated venue. Some critics call prediction markets gambling. Supporters frame it as a hedging and information tool.

  • Polymarket
    Praised in crypto circles for decentralization and speed. Known for large traders and rapid market creation. Faced regulatory hurdles, yet widely cited for real time odds on major events.

Accessibility (KYC, Payments, etc)

  • Kalshi
    U.S. only with full identity checks. Fund via ACH, debit, wire, or crypto conversion to USD through a partner. Withdraw to bank or use the partner path back to crypto.

  • Polymarket
    No KYC if you already hold USDC. Connect a wallet and trade. Card on-ramps are convenient but add fees and KYC with the provider. Many users buy USDC on exchanges to keep costs low.

Summary: Kalshi equals compliance and familiar banking rails. Polymarket equals convenience for wallet users.

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Pros and Cons

Kalshi Pros

  • Fully regulated and U.S. legal
  • Easy fiat deposits and withdrawals
  • High limits on flagship markets
  • Instant matching and clean apps
  • Clear settlement rules and formal dispute paths

Kalshi Cons

  • U.S. only
  • Fees near 7 percent of potential profit
  • More U.S. centric topics
  • Requires full KYC
  • Thin liquidity in obscure markets

Polymarket Pros

  • No platform trading fees
  • Global reach
  • Wide market variety, strong in crypto and tech
  • Wallet custody of funds
  • Exit positions anytime on-chain
  • Community energy and fast reaction to news

Polymarket Cons

  • Crypto only with USDC
  • Gas fees on each trade
  • Regulatory uncertainty in some regions
  • Learning curve for wallets and on-ramps
  • Open proposals can surface low quality markets
  • Large traders can sway thin markets

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which to Choose

  • Choose Kalshi if you are in the U.S., want a regulated experience, prefer bank or card deposits, and plan to trade U.S. politics, sports, or macro events.
  • Choose Polymarket if you are crypto savvy, want zero platform fees, prefer global topics, and are comfortable holding USDC in a wallet.

Both let you sell early, manage risk, and convert opinions into tradable odds. Start small and manage your bankroll with care.

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Conclusion

Kalshi vs Polymarket is a choice between two philosophies. Kalshi brings prediction markets into the regulated finance world. Polymarket pushes them into decentralized crypto. Both are powerful in their own way. Pick the one that fits your goals and your comfort with fiat or crypto.

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