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RE: Irma went West instead of East, Miami is spared, Tampa Bay is in the crosshairs
Makes sense. Authorities have to have some level of commitment to their forecasts and can't radically change every hour, else they lose credibility and no one takes action on the evacuation notices
Yes, even when they know they might be wrong. Small adjustments to a forecast will eventually catch up with current conditions, more commonly referred to as "Nowcasting." The NWS knows trys their very best to not cry wolf... and they are good at it.