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Yessir, your linear statement is almost exactly how the "Steemit 101" book (99c download on Amazon Kindle) describes the current situation. And great article @acidyo following you now.

Interesting, so for minnows to maximize their votes they should vote right at the 30 minute mark every time?

Yes, but that does depend on the value it has then. If its already at 200 $D and the post will make around 600 max, your vote won't make as much profit even though you get 100%.

If you then vote on let's say 15 minutes, get 50% of your vote weight and the value then was at 2 $D but after 2 hours its at 2000$ it was a better choice for you to share the reward with the author cause it got really popular and you ended up profiting more than had you voted at 30 minutes at 50 $D.