🔥 Unshakeable Computing Power Dominance: Nvidia on Track to Reach $5 Trillion in the Second Half of 2025
🚀 I. Technology Products: Blackwell Surges and Inference Demand Explodes
Blackwell chips dominate the market: The new generation of GPUs accounted for 70% of data center revenue in the first quarter, far exceeding expectations. The supply chain confirms that Q2 shipments doubled quarter-over-quarter, with customers like Microsoft and Google accelerating deployment of hundreds of thousands of chips to support the expansion of AI training and inference infrastructure.
Inference demand becomes a new engine: Multimodal AI and agent-based AI applications are driving a surge in real-time computing demand. Microsoft's daily token processing volume reaches trillions, forcing the upgrade of low-latency computing power. Jensen Huang has clearly positioned inference as the core of future growth, and the Blackwell architecture has been optimized for this purpose.
🌍 II. Market Demand: The Global AI Infrastructure Arms Race Continues
Cloud Giants Increase Capital Expenditures: The four largest tech clients (Microsoft, Meta, Google, and Amazon) will increase their AI infrastructure budgets to approximately $350 billion in 2025, a 35% year-on-year increase, with over 40% going to the NVIDIA ecosystem.
Sovereign AI Projects Underway: Saudi Arabia's "Humain" plans to purchase over 18,000 GB300 chips, while the Middle East, Europe, and Japan are accelerating the development of national AI platforms. NVIDIA's "full-stack solutions" have made it the preferred supplier for sovereign projects, and related demand is expected to exceed $50 billion per year over the next five years.
💰 III. Finance and Capital: Earnings Resilience and Shareholder Returns Drive Dual Support
Gross Margin Remains High: Excluding the impact of H20 impairments, operating gross margin reached 71.3%, reflecting solid pricing power in high-end chips.
Record Buybacks Boost Confidence: Management signaled a long-term bullish outlook with $14 billion spent on share buybacks in Q1 (accounting for nearly 50% of free cash flow). Institutions predict that if Q2 performance exceeds expectations, a new round of buybacks may be initiated.
🛡️ IV. Competitive Landscape: Ecosystem Barriers Block Challengers
CUDA's Moat Deepens: Developers rely on the CUDA software ecosystem, resulting in high migration costs and difficulty for AMD/Intel in the short term. The Blackwell platform further integrates hardware and AI workflows, strengthening customer loyalty.
Limited Threat from Emerging Competitors: Despite market concerns about low-cost AI models, cloud giants continue to prioritize NVIDIA chips to ensure computing power stability. Wall Street consensus predicts that its market share (80%-90% in AI training/inference) will remain for at least 3-5 years.
⚠️ V. Potential Risks: Supply Chain and Valuation Fluctuations
Advanced Packaging Capacity Bottlenecks: CoWoS packaging technology relies on TSMC, and if AI demand exceeds expectations, delivery delays could occur. The company has diversified its supplier base, but short-term risks remain.
Short-term Valuation Pressure: Some institutions (such as Bridgewater Associates) reduced their holdings by 34% in Q1, reflecting caution regarding the currently high valuation. The current P/E ratio is 33x, below the ten-year average, but a slowdown in Q2 growth could trigger volatility.
💎 2025 H2 Core Outlook
Dimensions Current Progress 2H Expectations Market Impact
Product Iteration: Blackwell accounts for 70% of the market, and the next-generation Rubin chip is being deployed early, widening the technology generation gap.
Demand Sources: North American cloud giants dominate, with sovereign projects contributing 25% and a diversified revenue structure.
Capital Action: $14 billion in buybacks in Q1, with a possible new buyback program in Q3 supporting the stock price.
Risk Points: Tight packaging capacity, geopolitical supply chain disruptions, and increased short-term volatility.
📌 Conclusion: Driven by both technology and demand, pullbacks present opportunities. Biya is a very convenient and user-friendly tool, particularly in the US and Hong Kong stock markets. You can access more news without having to use multiple platforms. It's very convenient and practical.
In the second half of 2025, NVIDIA will continue its growth driven by the global expansion of Blackwell and the explosive growth of inference scenarios. Biya remains highly useful, and deepening cooperation with sovereign projects will further open up new opportunities. Although short-term valuation fluctuations are inevitable, its irreplaceable AI computing power, coupled with high profit elasticity and shareholder returns, will continue to attract long-term capital investment. If it breaks through the technical adjustment range, the path to a market value of US$5 trillion will be clear, and the strategy of allocating on dips will prevail.