Grok on US farm labor requirements...
Me: Hi, dumb question about farms and farming...Has there been any significant increase in the manpower required to operateUS farms since 2020?
Grok:
No dumb questions here—farming is a complex topic, and it’s great to dig into it! To answer whether there’s been a significant increase in manpower required to operate U.S. farms since 2020, let’s look at the data and trends.Overall, there hasn’t been a significant increase in the manpower required to operate U.S. farms since 2020. In fact, the broader trend in U.S. agriculture points to a continued reliance on fewer workers due to technological advancements, automation, and farm consolidation, though specific labor dynamics have shifted slightly in recent years. Here’s a breakdown:Stable or Slightly Increased Employment Numbers: According to the USDA’s Economic Research Service, wage and salary employment in agriculture (including support industries like farm labor contracting) has been on a gradual upward trend since 2010, rising from 1.13 million in 2013 to 1.17 million in 2023, a 4% increase. However, this growth predates 2020 and doesn’t indicate a significant spike in manpower needs specifically since then. The Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) reported average annual farm employment at about 1.6 million in 2022, roughly unchanged from prior years, suggesting stability rather than a surge in labor demand.
Automation and Productivity Gains: U.S. agriculture has historically reduced labor needs through mechanization and labor-saving technologies. For example, innovations like advanced tractors, automated feeding systems, and harvesting machines have continued to decrease the hours required per unit of output. From 1948 to 2017, total farm labor hours dropped by over 80%, while output nearly tripled, and this trend has persisted. While specific post-2020 data on labor hours isn’t fully detailed in the sources, there’s no evidence of a reversal necessitating more manpower overall.
Labor Shortages and H-2A Program Growth: Despite stable employment numbers, there’s been a reported labor shortage, particularly for seasonal and manual labor, which might make it feel like more manpower is needed. The H-2A visa program, which brings in temporary foreign workers, has grown significantly, quadrupling over the past decade to fill about 10% of seasonal crop jobs by 2023. In 2022, over 300,000 H-2A visas were issued, with ~90% going to Mexican workers. This suggests farms are struggling to find enough domestic workers, but it’s more about filling existing labor needs than an increase in total manpower required.
Shifting Workforce Dynamics: The nature of farm labor has changed, with fewer migrant workers (down to 4% of crop farmworkers in 2020–22 from 14% in 1992–94) and more settled workers (83% live within 75 miles of their workplace). Undocumented workers, who make up ~40–50% of crop farmworkers, and an aging workforce (foreign-born workers’ average age rose by ~7 years from 2006 to 2022) highlight challenges in attracting new labor, but not necessarily an increase in jobs.
Economic Pressures: Rising labor costs, with farm labor expenses forecast at a record $51.7 billion in 2025 (up 5.9% from 2024), reflect higher wages (e.g., H-2A Adverse Effect Wage Rates of $14–$18/hour in 2024) rather than a need for more workers. These costs, combined with high input expenses, have pushed some farmers to rely on fewer workers or mechanize further to stay competitive.
Sentiment on X: Posts on X highlight ongoing concerns about labor shortages, with some claiming a shortfall of up to 500,000 workers and fears of unharvested crops driving up food prices. Others argue automation has reduced the need for labor, with adequate H-2A workers for hand-picked crops. These reflect perceptions of labor challenges but don’t confirm a significant increase in manpower needs.
Conclusion: There’s no clear evidence of a significant increase in manpower required to operate U.S. farms since 2020. Employment has remained stable or grown slightly, but this is part of a longer trend, not a post-2020 spike. Labor shortages and reliance on H-2A workers indicate difficulty filling existing roles, particularly for labor-intensive crops like berries or vegetables, but automation and productivity gains continue to limit overall labor demand. If anything, farms are adapting to do more with fewer workers due to economic and technological pressures.If you’re curious about a specific type of farming (e.g., crops vs. livestock) or region, let me know, and I can dig deeper!
Me:
Thanks. The question has political implications. Why are dems caterwauling that our entire farm system will collapse if President Trump deports the ten or fifteen million illegal aliens that they invited into the country while Joe Biden was in office?? Do they think we can't figure it out???