You are viewing a single comment's thread from:
RE: Molali - La Liga Matchday 10 Predictions
Good luck.
Watch out with the 0-0 bets. Less than 5% of the games do end up in a scoreless draw. If a draw is played, the most common result is 1-1.
You maybe also could find value in the over and under bets. For sure the under bets could be very rewarding!
Thanks.
I will keep that in mind, didn't know about the 5%. At the moment I just look the calculated probability and the given odds. Maybe this is a weakness of the Poisson aproach, that for 0-0 the calculation do not make sense? I will keep an eye on that when analyzing the performance.
I can imagine looking for the over / unders at a later stage, I don't want to do too much rigth at the beginning, I think I would lose control ;)
In Belgium 25% of the games do end up in a draw. Almost the same figure for the games in the Premier League.
The weakness of the Poisson models is that on one side it most of the time does predict low scoring games, hence to many 0-0, 1-0 or 0-1 s are predicted.
Also it rarely does predict a draw! Besides the most likely correct score.
How do you adopt the predictions with the weight. Very curious about it.