Steem Power distribution trends - Steemit is becoming more democratic, diverse and equal! A detailed analysis.
This post has been two weeks in the making. It'll be long, apologies for that, but kindly bear with me - there's some interesting observations here!
There has been considerable speculation about the inequality on Steem. It has caused a lot of anguish to some, while most have understood that this is a known effect, if not a central tenet, of the stake-weighted reputation system.
The controversy - Is Steem increasing inequality?
Since joining Steemit, I've been meaning to get down to the bottom of it. Sure, the system will not work if everyone has the same vote - it'll always in inequal, just like every economic system in the history of the world has always been. But at its onset, Steemit had a startling GINI co-efficient of 0.98. The (unfair) accusation lobbied by some was that Steemit will just get more and more inequal to the point where all the power will lie with just a few people. I was concerned too
For the last two weeks, I have been diligently tracking data from Steemd.com. Across 200 data points, I have now compiled it into one single stacked chart that definitively answers that question.
It's a resounding NO. The numbers speak the truth - I'll let the chart speak for itself. Steemit is getting more equal! It's a massive and rapid redistribution of wealth, in just 2 weeks.
I'll explain it all, but first, let me step back and briefly run you through my process
Methodology
I shall keep this as simple as possible. If you wish to learn details, please comment - I'll reply.
The intention here was to survey the change in impact of the various tiers of Steem Power holders on the Steemit community. This is not about overall wealth - though I'm collecting data for that as well. Nor is it about number of people getting rich. To that intent, I'm collecting data on Active 24 hours and stake percentage from Steemd.com Distribution.
Every day, I would collect three sets of data for each level at the same times. As Steem is still a relatively small community, there are major deviations. I've tried to smooth out these anomalies, though as you'll see, there's a major one - the temporary closure of registrations.
Steem Power vs Vests
OK, so the title is misleading, what I'm really looking at is Vests and their percentage stake for each level. This difference between Vests and Steem Power is crucial in understanding why the top 0.1% are happy to redistribute their stake. Briefly, when you invest in Steem Power, you are really investing in Vests. You own a small stake of Steemit - think of it as shareholding. Steem Power is just the Steem value representation for your Vests at that moment. As the platform grows, so does the value of each Vest. Each Vest is worth more Steem.
For instance, 20% stake of a $100 pie is more valueable than a 10% stake of a $300 pie.
Now, let's dive into each tier.
Over 1 Billion Vests - The Whales
There about 50 Whales or, as I light-heartedly like to call them, Stars. They have an enormous impact on the community. Over the last 2 weeks, they have been busy grooming the community.
This is the easiest conclusion - the Whales are busy redistributing their wealth across the platform, generating Steem. It's a sharp decline, barring the anomaly caused by the temporary closing of new registrations.
It's easy to see what's happening here, whales like @steemed are grooming the next generation.
Over 10 Million Vests - The Dolphins
We have two tiers for the Dolphins - 10M+ and 100M+ Vests. Some may call the 100M+ Orcas, I like to call them Planets or Minke Whales. :)
So, this is where the whale's re-distribution is going - to the 100M+ tier. There are 170 Steemers in this category, but growing every day. These are the top creators of Steemit, who the Whales are grooming to be Top Curators. It's an enormous increase in stakeholding - from 14% to 20% in just 2 weeks!
The 10M+ category is pretty much holding steady, though we get a hint of an imbalance in the system right now which will become more apparent in the next section.
Going forward, it will be the responsibility of the 100M+ dolphins to promote the 10M+.
Under 10 Million Vests - The Minnows
There is a LOT of activity here! 0.1 MV minnows are constantly being promoted to 1 MV minnows, while minnows become dolphins. There's a lot of variation, but the general trend is still up.
The only (ostensibly) spot of concern here is the 0.01 MV minnows, who make up ~80% of the community. Their stakeholding is decreasing. More and more Steemers are promoted upwards, but less and less are coming into replace them. One perspective is - Steem is redistributing too fast for its own good!
So there you have it folks. Steemit is in a very healthy state. It will always be a Zipfian distribution, of course, and that's OK.
Of course, it's only been 2 weeks. I'll continue to track these trends. I'm also working on a post about overall distribution, but it will take one more month to collect enough data.
Thank you for reading! I'd love to hear your thoughts and interpretation.
Your post is an eyeopener for me, its a whole ecosystem here. I like the way you say whales are grooming the next generation. That's so true and they get to influence what direction steemit takes.
I wish I was groomed, I just woke up!
Good read to start my Saturday!
You were absolutely right @dailyhobbyist :) Thank you so much for your support.
More than the upvotes, I'm more excited by the discussion it's sparking. Would love to see more interesting comments!
Thanks, I'm thinking I might have posted this too early in the Saturday morning!
not that early! Good luck
Thanks! This post is heading into the void though :(
Don't think so told you ! You should show some love back now lol
Cheers!
Yes, I made similar point yesterday. I believe Steem is still representative of the natural #wealth-distribution we tend to see on earth. But working to together, we can all make a difference.
Wow, this is great work. Fascinating data, for sure. Thanks.
Thank you @stellabelle :)
As you know, you have been one of my influences. I hope to follow in your path.
I also think your story is the perfect representation for this - how the whales (I even mentioned @steemed in my post, wish I had mentioned you too!) have recognized your talent, groomed and uplifted you into their company.
@liberosist, I meant to comment on this post yesterday but I wanted to wait till it hit the trend list because I knew it would. This work needs to be acknowledged as it is great work!! Yet another example of good authors being recognized. Congrats on being recognized.
Thanks a lot, @jacor. I know you have been following and supporting my posts, couldn't have done it without the encouragement from steemers like you. :)
You're one of my favorite new authors too. Keep at it!
A better form of trickle-down :)
I like to call it chucking-down :)
Thanks for visually showing us the numbers behind whale and dolphin influence on Steemit. It's one thing to see the complainers post about how whales are going to be the end of this social community. Sometimes having the evidence out there in front of you can be reassuring. The math also supports the idea that whales and dolphins are supercurators in a sense, with the influence to guide content in leaps and bounds. From there, it's a snowball rolling downhill.
Yes, it finally makes sense once you see it in raw numbers, and especially in visual form. It remains to be seen how the Dolphins bring up the Minnows. I think we'll get a better sense of that in my August update.
Not that it matters but some of the redistribution may be from selling off-- not necessarily due to the mechanics/internal economics but regardless, it still matters. I'm happy with the direction it is taking. Good post.
That's a good point. However, the Powering Down process - which is the only way to de-vest - takes a long one. So even if someone were to power down 100%, that would be only be reflected as a ~2% decline in 2 weeks.
Very true and something I failed to account for. Good point.
Though the process would give around 1% per week right? As a whale, that might have some significant effect. But overall, I agree with you.
Yes, 1% per week, hence the 2% over 2 weeks. It would only be a worst case scenario of a 2% effect if ALL of them decided to power down 100%. Which is clearly not the case. Seeing as the decline has been nearly high single digits, it's definitely not a factor here. Within margin of error.
Wow! Amazing post. You summed up how the community is progressing, and pretty much addressed one of the major issues people think the have with the site (the people at the top just doing something to make themselves rich). Its a great trend, and hopefully a look forward into the exiting future ahead!
Indeed! It's also important to remember that while their stakeholding may be decreasing on a daily basis, their wallet's values are increasing as the platform grows, and the value of each Vest in Steem increases. So, it's not like it's charity - everyone wins here. Of course, one questions how sustainable this model is, but I'll continue to follow these trends and see how it unfolds. From what I have looked at, as long as growth is sustained, Steem will continue fueling itself. Of course, it hits a ceiling at some point, but my guess is it's going to be a few hundred million users before that happens. Long way to go!
Hope so too! You may be interested in reading my article walking people through the process of purchasing Steem/SP. My thought is that there are a lot of people who are excited about Steemit, who may not be that informed about Bitcoin/crypto-currency. If we could help these users get involved in the investment side, by trying to help them over the learning curve of buying coins, we may get more heavyweights entering through the investment side.
https://steemit.com/steem/@timcliff/steemit-how-to-invest-in-steemit-com-through-the-purchase-of-steem-or-steem-power-in-10-easy-steps
I'm a tiny little monnow with so much to learn. Thanks for the post. Steemit is really an enormous Symbiotic system.
Thanks,nace post
Great job. There's still so much to learn!
I feel special :)
And as a dolphin I think we have GREAT responsibility.
I wrote about this here.
https://steemit.com/steemit/@razvanelulmarin/i-am-now-a-hero-taking-on-the-challenge-to-steemit-as-one
Congrats on making Dolphin! Or baby Dolphin anyway ;) Great post, by the way!
Yes, your curation matters now. It's your responsibility to take deserving minnows up to dolphin status. :)
Always looking up fo that. thansks!