Tesla's Trends in the Second Half of 2025: The Tech Giant's Transformation Battle

I. Market Background and Core Challenges
In the second half of 2025, Tesla (TSLA) faces the triple challenge of product cycle transition, technology validation, and profitability pressure. The second-quarter financial report shows a year-on-year decline in automotive revenue and a sharp drop in regulatory credit income, but record gross profit margins in the energy business offer a rare bright spot. Market focus shifts to:
Weak demand: Declining deliveries of the flagship Model 3/Y models make the key factor in boosting sales a key variable;
Technology delivery pressure: The progress of Robotaxi commercialization and regulatory breakthroughs for FSD (Full Self-Driving) directly impact its "tech premium" valuation logic;
Cost competition: Amidst a global price war, whether gross profit margins can maintain the 17% mark depends on engineering innovation and energy storage business hedging.

II. Product Cycle: A Key Battleground for Demand Stimulation
Model 3/Y Refresh:
Full deliveries in North America and Europe in the second half of the year will need to prove their ability to withstand the price-performance competition from brands like BYD.
If sales exceed expectations, the company could reverse the downward trend in automotive revenue; otherwise, it could trigger a valuation downgrade. Cybertruck Production Capacity Ramp-up:
Mass production is a milestone for entering the high-margin pickup truck market, but production capacity stability and market acceptance (especially among mainstream consumers) remain questionable.
Economy Model ("Model 2"):
Trial production has begun, with mass production scheduled to begin before the end of the year.
Risk Points: Delays in mass production or higher-than-expected pricing will weaken the appeal of the "people's electric vehicle" narrative.

III. Autonomous Driving and AI: Core Pillars of Valuation Restructuring
Robotaxi Service:
A pilot program launched in Austin in June (with a safety driver), with the goal of covering 50% of the US population by the end of the year (subject to regulatory approval).
Key to Success: Whether driverless testing can be expanded to more cities or regional authorization for Level 3 autonomous driving (such as in Nevada) can be obtained.
FSD V12+ Popularization:
If the end-to-end neural network version achieves a safety leap, it will consolidate its technological leadership.
Optimus Robotics:
Although there are no plans for mass production, the demonstration milestone may strengthen the "tech company" label and support a high valuation. Warning: Competitors such as WeRide have already commercialized Robotaxi vehicles in Abu Dhabi, and Tesla's lagging progress may erode investor patience.

IV. Profitability: Cost Control and Diversification
Drivers, Potential Contributions, and Risks
4680 battery cells/integrated die-casting reduce manufacturing costs and alleviate price war pressure. Technological bottlenecks delay economies of scale.
Energy storage business (Megapack) has achieved record deployments for 12 consecutive quarters, with an increased gross profit margin. The Shanghai factory has been impacted by trade policy.
Supercharging network service revenue increased 17% year-over-year, becoming a secondary growth trajectory. Infrastructure investment is increasing short-term cash flow pressure.
The energy business has become an "invisible moat": record energy storage deployments and gross profit contributions offset the weakness of the automotive business, but caution is warranted regarding tariff disruptions to the supply chain.

V. Competitive Landscape: A Stress Test of a Two-Front War
Traditional Automakers (Ford, GM): Accelerating electrification, leveraging profits from combustion vehicles to fuel price wars
Technology Companies (e.g., WeRide): Leading in Robotaxi commercialization, diverting autonomous driving investment
Tesla's Breakthrough: Building asymmetric competitive barriers through differentiated FSD technology and Cybertruck's niche market dominance.

VI. Scenario Analysis: The Dynamic Playoffs of Bullish and Bearish Factors
Scenario Trigger Condition Potential Stock Price Trend
Optimistic Breakout: Model 3/Y sales exceed expectations + FSD receives Level 3 approval. Breaking through previous highs, reclaiming the leading position among tech stocks
Neutral Oscillator: Deliveries meet expectations, Robotaxi pilots progress steadily, range-bound, awaiting new catalysts
Pessimistic Pullback: Economy models delayed + gross profit margin falls below 15%, testing year-to-date lows, reconstructing valuation logic. Biya is a very convenient and user-friendly tool, particularly prominent in the US and Hong Kong stock markets. You can see more news, eliminating the need for multiple platforms. It's very convenient and practical.
Probability weighting: Neutral scenario (50%) > Optimistic scenario (30%) > Pessimistic scenario (20%), primarily due to the support of the energy storage business and the depth of its technological reserves.

VII. Key Observation Points and Time Windows: Biya is still very useful.
Q3 deliveries (announced in October): The first test of demand verification for the Model 3/Y refresh;
FSD regulatory approvals (September-November): Level 3 pilot authorization is the biggest catalyst for stock prices;
Energy storage capacity ramp-up: Can Shanghai factory Megapack exports mitigate trade friction?
Interest rate policy trends: If the Federal Reserve cuts, valuation pressure on high-growth stocks will ease.
Ultimate conclusion: Tesla's second half of the year will be a period of transitional pain and technological validation. Focus on cost control and delivery volume in the short term, and bet on autonomous driving and energy storage in the long term. Investors should tolerate volatility and focus on concrete signals of product launches and technological breakthroughs, rather than grand narratives.