⚡ US Stock Market Outlook for the Second Half of 2025: Sector Competition and Opportunities Amidst the Storm
After the global market experienced the "tariff shock" in April, the US stock market entered a difficult recovery period in the second half of 2025. While the volatility caused by policy fluctuations has not completely subsided, some industries, leveraging internal momentum or structural advantages, are quietly brewing rebound opportunities. Industry differentiation will be the main theme. The resilience of tech giants, the pain of energy transition, the rigidity of consumer demand, and the bottoming out of the semiconductor cycle will jointly outline the key trends in the second half of the US stock market.
⚙️ 1. Tech Giants: A Dual Track of Resilience and New Demand
Despite the Nasdaq's nearly 6% single-day plunge and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index's 9.88% drop during the April stock market crash, leading companies have demonstrated strong resilience. Three core drivers underpin the second half of the year's outlook:
Cloud services and AI demand: Demand for enterprise digitalization and AI model training continues to boost data center orders, offsetting some of the weakness in hardware consumption;
Subscription model moat: Recurring revenue from entertainment streaming and software-as-a-service (SaaS) provides cash flow stability amidst economic fluctuations;
Valuation recovery potential: After a deep correction in tech stocks, forward PEs are near a five-year low, attracting long-term investors to gradually deploy capital.
We should be wary of potential supply chain costs increases caused by fluctuating tariff policies and the potential pressure on B2B businesses from tightening corporate IT budgets.
🔋 2. Energy Transition: The LNG industry faces oversupply risks, while traditional oil and gas benefit in the short term.
The liquefied natural gas (LNG) sector faces significant challenges. Research indicates that global LNG projects could face an oversupply of $283 billion by 2025, with shelved projects in the United States, Canada, and Australia valued at $71 billion, $82 billion, and $68 billion, respectively. Deeper-rooted contradictions include:
Cost disadvantage: New projects relying on prices above $10 per million British thermal units (such as some North American shale gas) struggle to be profitable;
Green policy squeeze: Europe's carbon pricing mechanism is driving up operating costs, while declining renewable energy costs are weakening long-term demand.
Traditional oil and gas companies have found some breathing space as oil prices rebounded to the $60-65 range (Brent benchmark), but they should be mindful of the impact recession expectations will have on demand.
🎭 III. Defensive Consumer Sector: Addictive consumption and entertainment demand demonstrate resilience.
In a volatile market, consumer staples and entertainment consumption have become safe havens for capital.
Tobacco giants are accelerating their transformation: British American Tobacco (BAT), for example, will launch the e-cigarette brand Vuse in the second half of the year, leveraging their 51.6% distribution network to achieve e-cigarette leadership within two years. A conservative estimate is that the e-cigarette business will contribute 3% to profits.
Recovering entertainment consumption: The concert economy is driving related ticketing, hotel, and related industries. Large-scale events such as Blackpink's Wembley concert (August) and Lady Gaga's tour will stimulate local consumption.
💎 IV. Semiconductors: Cycle Bottoming and Structural Opportunities in AI Demand
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plummeted nearly 10% in April, but is expected to enter a bottoming-out recovery phase in the second half of the year:
The inventory cycle has bottomed out: Channel inventory reduction is nearing completion, and demand for mobile phone and PC restocking has modestly rebounded. Biya is a very convenient and user-friendly tool, particularly prominent in the US and Hong Kong stock markets. It allows users to access more news without having to use multiple devices, making it extremely convenient and practical.
AI hardware is driving growth: Demand for AI training chips, high-speed memory (HBM), and advanced packaging remains strong, partially offsetting weakness in traditional businesses.
Equipment manufacturers remain constrained by global fab expansion delays, but leading design companies are expected to rebound first.
US stock investments in the second half of 2025 require a balanced approach to defensiveness and resilience:
High cash flow barriers: Prioritize subscription-based software and consumer staples (such as tobacco companies transitioning into new markets), leveraging stable cash flow to mitigate volatility;
Recovering from missed growth opportunities: Screen for reasonably valued semiconductor design and AI infrastructure leaders to capitalize on the cyclical recovery; Biya remains highly effective;
Event-driven opportunities: Focus on the short-term potential for explosive growth in regional consumer chains and surrounding retail driven by large-scale concerts and sporting events.