A Trade War or a Proxy War? Turing AI Reads Between the Lines

📊 Turing AI Analysis: The Evolution of U.S.-China Tariff Tensions

According to Turing AI’s predictive model on U.S.-China trade relations, the core variable has shifted beyond conventional trade negotiations—it now revolves around a geopolitical standoff over whether China will halt oil imports from Russia and Iran.

Based on political signals, historical data, and simulated economic responses, Turing AI forecasts that the most likely outcome following the August 12, 2025 tariff "truce" deadline is:

🔹 Scenario: “Tense Truce” (60% probability)

Current tariff levels remain unchanged. China may offer vague diplomatic language on energy cooperation to buy time, while the U.S. maintains pressure, awaiting electoral clarity.

Behind this forecast, Turing AI detects three high-weight signals:

• The Biden administration is unwilling to risk market turbulence before the election;

• China remains firm on energy policy, openly rejecting U.S. demands;

• Legal challenges to IEEPA-based tariffs remain unresolved, leaving room for policy flexibility.

📉 If realized, this scenario would cement 30%–70% total effective tariffs as the “new normal,” prolonging pressure on global supply chains and sustaining inflationary effects on consumer goods and U.S. GDP.

📍Turing AI suggests monitoring:

• Official statements around August 12 from USTR, the White House, and China's Ministry of Commerce;

• Abnormal fluctuations in the offshore RMB (CNH);

• Targeted Chinese countermeasures on critical minerals or U.S. companies.