⚡️ Tariff Barriers Transformed into Moats: Technological Hegemony and Valuation Awakening Behind TSMC's Two-Day Surprise
TSMC's (TSM) recent performance perfectly illustrates the market principle of "risk elimination creates opportunity"—a tariff exemption policy triggered a wave of capital revaluation, pushing the world's leading foundry to a record high and revealing the underlying logic behind its technological moat and valuation correction. The following analyzes key trends from three perspectives: event-driven, market-driven, and technical signals.
💥 1. Key Event Drivers: Tariff Exemptions Trigger Valuation Revaluation
Policy Turning Point
The United States announced high tariffs on semiconductor companies without US factories, but also exempted companies "committed to or in the process of building US factories." TSMC was directly exempted due to its $100 billion wafer fab investment plan in Arizona (consisting of three wafer fabs, two packaging and testing facilities, and an R&D center), completely allaying market concerns about rising supply chain costs.
Qualitative Impact: The policy shifts from a "potential negative impact" to a "certification of scarcity," highlighting the strategic advantages of TSMC's global production capacity layout.
Countdown to Mass Production
2nm process technology is imminent: The Arizona fab will begin mass production of advanced process chips in the second half of 2025. Approximately 30% of future 2nm and higher process capacity will come from this facility, directly tapping into the demand of giants like Apple and Nvidia.
Foundry dominance strengthens: 3nm and lower process revenue accounts for over 60%, and the technology generation gap continues to widen.
📊 II. Market Reaction and Technical Signal Interpretation
Stock Price and Capital Flow Dynamics
Historical Highs and Profit-Taking Mixed:
First-Day Surprise: The stock price jumped higher on the day the policy was announced, surging nearly 5% in a single day to close at a record high, with its market capitalization exceeding NT$30 trillion and contributing over 450 points to the Taiwan Stock Exchange's single-day gain.
The next day saw a period of volatile consolidation: Some short-term investors took profits, leading to a slight pullback in the stock price, but trading volume shrank and the stock remained below the key support level of 1,170 yuan, indicating manageable selling pressure.
ADR-linked premium: US ADRs surged by nearly 5%, exceeding a 20% premium over the Taiwan stock market, highlighting international investors' recognition of the exemption policy's value.
Comparison of Bullish and Bearish Factor Strength
Driving Factors: Bullish Support, Bearish Pressure, Sustainability
Tariff Exemption Confirmation ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ⭐ Long-term
2nm Mass Production Expectations ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ⭐⭐ Medium-term
AI/HPC Order Saturation ⭐⭐⭐ ⭐ Long-term
Valuation Recovery Potential ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ⭐⭐ Short-term
Key Technical Levels: The previous high of 1,180 yuan is a psychological resistance level. A breakout with significant volume would open up upside potential; 1,170 yuan represents a short-term watershed between strength and weakness.
🧠 III. Institutional Consensus: The Starting Point of a Valuation Awakening
Horizontal Comparison Highlights Undervaluation
TSMC's price-to-earnings ratio is only approximately 20 times, significantly lower than that of the top ten global tech giants (Broadcom at 113 times, Nvidia at 58 times, and Microsoft at 38 times, among others). However, its earnings per share growth rate over the past 12 months has been a staggering 58%, second only to Nvidia's 81.6%8. The conclusion is clear: its technological dominance and earnings growth are not fully reflected in its valuation, leaving room for a definite correction.
The positioning of "catch-up blue chip stocks" is strengthening.
Foreign investors have continued to make large purchases: after policy clarification, they bought over 23,000 contracts in a single day, with three major institutional investors simultaneously increasing their holdings.
Derivatives market bets: Open interest in options is concentrated in out-of-the-money call options, suggesting market expectations of continued upside potential.
💎 Final Analysis: Layout Strategy and Risk Warning
Operational Logic Hierarchy
Short-term traders:
Trade on a pullback to around 1170 yuan, with a stop-loss at 1150 yuan; if it breaks through 1180 yuan and trading volume increases threefold, pursue the trend, targeting a 20% premium to the previous high.
Long-term holders:
Focus on 2nm mass production progress (Q4 2025) and AI chip order penetration, and hold until the technology dividend is fully realized.
Risk Hedging Recommendations
Monitor geopolitical fluctuations: Non-economic factors (such as changes in international relations) may disrupt sentiment. Allocate gold or stablecoins to hedge tail risks.
Be wary of technology speculation: If Intel's 18A process exceeds mass production expectations, it may divert some foundry orders. Monitor the yield data of competing products.
Winning or losing signals:
September Technology Summit (2nm yield disclosure) → October Q3 financial report (whether gross profit margin can remain stable at 58%) → Arizona factory capacity ramp-up progress
Conclusion: Biya is a very convenient and user-friendly tool for the value transition from "policy benefits" to "technology dominance," and it stands out in the US and Hong Kong stock markets. It allows you to access more news, eliminating the need for multiple platforms. It's extremely convenient and practical.
TSMC's two-day performance isn't simply news speculation, but rather a global capital revaluation of its technological supremacy, production capacity scarcity, and valuation discount:
Short-term fluctuations are driven by policy maneuvers, and the implementation of exemptions will eliminate all negative factors.
The long-term trend is tied to 2nm mass production and the demand for AI computing power. Biya is still very useful. If the Arizona plant meets yield standards, a market capitalization increase of hundreds of billions is just the beginning.
Investors must strike a precise balance between "chasing high anxiety" and "missing the opportunity"—when its technological moat meets its valuation trough, TSMC remains the irreplaceable "wafer king" in the global semiconductor game.