💥 Earnings Report: The AI Capital Rally Behind NBIS's Two-Day Surprise
In August 2025, amidst volatile US stock markets, Nebius (NBIS) delivered a financial report that defied market expectations, setting off a "Fast and Furious" spectacle in the capital markets. This upstart AI infrastructure company, heavily invested in by Nvidia, is becoming a global investment hotspot with its astonishing performance growth and technological leadership. The following is an in-depth analysis of the logic behind its meteoric rise and future momentum.
💰 1. Key Drivers: Expected Earnings Report Triggers a Revaluation
Bombshell Earnings Growth
Revenue Surge: Q2 revenue surged 625% year-over-year, far exceeding market expectations and setting a record high in the company's history. This was driven by the explosive growth of its AI cloud services and computing power leasing businesses, reflecting the global demand for AI infrastructure.
Losses Narrowed: Adjusted net losses narrowed by over 10% compared to expectations, demonstrating initial success in cost control and economies of scale, signaling a turning point in profitability.
Impressive Future Guidance: Annualized Run Rate (ARR) is projected to exceed $1 billion, indicating continued growth momentum in the second half of the year.
NVIDIA's Endorsement Strengthens Scarcity
As a key NVIDIA holding (over one million shares), NBIS is deeply integrated into the leading global AI computing ecosystem. The two parties' technical collaboration in GPU optimization and AI model training is viewed by investors as a "core piece of the puzzle for next-generation AI infrastructure."
📈 II. Market Reaction and Technical Signal Analysis
Stock Price and Capital Flow Dynamics
Explosive First-Day Rally: The stock price surged over 23% on the day of the earnings report release, with trading volume trebling the monthly average. Short-selling and institutional investors combined to buy shares.
Consolidation at the next high: The stock continued to rise by over 1% after hours, breaking through the psychological barrier of $70. The pullback did not break the $68 support level, indicating that profit-taking pressure is manageable and the bullish trend remains stable.
Comparison of Bullish and Bearish Factor Strength
Driving Factors: Bullish Support, Bearish Pressure, Sustainability
Revenue Growth Sustainability ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ⭐ Medium-Term
NVIDIA Ecosystem Synergy ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ⭐⭐ Long-Term
Loss Reduction Progress ⭐⭐⭐ ⭐⭐⭐ Short-Term
Valuation Bubble Risk ⭐ ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Short-Term
Key Technical Levels: $70 is a sentiment watershed; a breakout targets the previously high premium range; $68 is a short-term defense.
🧠 III. Institutional Consensus: Transformation from "Speculative Target" to "Growth Core"
Valuation Logic Shift
Previously, the market viewed NBIS as a "high-loss theme stock." However, after the Q2 financial report validated its commercialization capabilities, the valuation anchor shifted to "revenue growth × market share expansion." Based on median ARR estimates, its price-to-sales ratio (PS) remains below the average of its AI cloud service peers, suggesting room for improvement.
Hidden Capital Layout
Strategic Financing Support: $700 million in equity financing was completed at the beginning of the year, with participation from giants such as NVIDIA and Accel, ensuring ample ammunition reserves.
Short-covering Demand: Short selling reached 15% of outstanding shares before the earnings report. The performance exceeding expectations triggered a concentrated liquidation of short positions, exacerbating the upward trend.
⚠️ IV. Risk Warning and Operational Strategy
Potential Risk Points
Earnings Realization Pressure: If Q3 losses fail to narrow continuously, the high valuation will be tested.
Technology Dependence Concerns: Excessive reliance on NVIDIA's chip architecture could weaken competitiveness if competitors (such as AMD's MI series) erode the market.
Tiered Operation Guide
Short-Term Traders:
Buy on support at $68, increase positions upon a breakout above $70, and target the $75-80 premium range.
Long-Term Investors:
Focus on ARR achievement and progress in diversifying the customer structure, holding until the break-even point in 2026.
Risk-Sensitive Individuals:
Hedge against individual stock volatility by allocating to leading AI industry chain companies (such as NVIDIA and Broadcom).
💎 Conclusion: Biya, a rising star in the AI infrastructure boom, is a very user-friendly tool, particularly prominent in the US and Hong Kong stock markets. It allows you to access more news without having to use multiple platforms. It's incredibly convenient and practical.
NBIS's two-day surge is no accident; it essentially reflects a bet by investors on the trend of affordable AI computing power.
Short-term momentum is driven by earnings beats and short-covering, with the $70 mark becoming a new battleground for both bulls and bears.
Long-term value depends on whether the company can translate its technological advantages into sustained profitability. If its ARR targets are achieved as expected, a market capitalization of 100 billion yuan is just the beginning. Biya is still very useful.
As computing power becomes the "water, electricity, and gas" of the new era, NBIS is emerging as a dark horse, tearing down the iron curtain in the AI infrastructure market.