📈 US Stock Market Heat Map: The Trio of AI Hegemony, the Electricity Revolution, and a Revaluation
🤖 1. Artificial Intelligence and Computing Infrastructure: A Full-Chain Explosion from Chips to Power
AI Giants: Resilient Earnings Support High Valuations
Nvidia (NVDA): Leveraging its monopoly in data center GPUs, it continues to benefit from global demand for AI computing power. Despite market concerns about its overvaluation, its technological advantages in AI training and inference (such as its NVLink high-speed interconnect) are still considered a core competitive advantage by institutions. The implementation of humanoid robots in edge computing scenarios warrants attention in the second half of the year.
Palantir (PLTR): Surging demand for AI software in government and enterprises has driven revenue above expectations. While valued at 150x P/E, inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 Index has boosted liquidity. The risk lies in whether continued growth in commercial customers can offset the pressure of high valuations.
Power Infrastructure: The "Invisible Engine" of AI
Vistra (VST): Expected to be the top performer in the S&P 500 by 2024, it benefits from surging data center power consumption. The independent power producer model allows for flexible response to electricity price fluctuations. If AI capital expenditures maintain a growth rate of over 40%, the capacity expansion dividend is expected to continue.
Power Solutions (PSIX): A heavy-duty engine manufacturer offering diversified fuel options, including hydrogen and natural gas. Demand for data center backup power drives revenue growth. Its technology pipeline aligns with the sustainable energy trend, offering significant room for valuation recovery.
💻 2. Semiconductor and Hardware Ecosystems: A Differentiated Landscape Under Technological Iteration
Foundry: Advanced Processes Determine Wins
TSMC (TSM): Sub-3nm production capacity is fully utilized, with AI chip orders booked through 2026. US factories have been exempted from tariffs, but technology confidentiality risks (such as the 2nm leak) and a shortage of domestic talent may suppress short-term gross profit margins.
Intel (INTC): Struggling with foundry losses and process delays, Intel has suspended its dividend and is laying off employees. The success or failure of the 18A (1.8nm) process represents a critical turning point. If mass production progress lags behind Samsung, valuations may come under further pressure. Leaders in the Segment: High-Speed Interconnect and Communications Equipment
Credo (CRDO): Its 200G optical DSP chips meet the low-power requirements of AI data centers and have secured major orders from Meta and Oracle. A 65% gross profit margin confirms its technology premium, but caution is warranted against intensifying industry competition.
CommScope (COMM): 5G and data center network equipment demand drives revenue growth, with a valuation of just 7x PE. Earnings expectations have been continuously raised, and its small market capitalization attracts investment.
📊 III. Financial and Cyclical Sectors: Undervalued Valuation Recovery and Safe-Haven Allocation
Banks and Insurance: Interest-Rate-Sensitive Value Depression
Barclays (BCS): Net interest income increases and AI-powered cost reduction and efficiency gains (Copilot deployment) yield a PEG ratio of just 0.41. The acquisition of Tesco Bank strengthens its retail business, making it a rare undervalued financial target in the UK and US markets.
Prudential (PUK): Focusing on the Asian middle-class insurance market, operating cash flow increased by 180% year-on-year. With 33 consecutive years of dividends, it is a long-term defensive investment amidst an aging population. Gold: A Hard Currency Amid Geopolitical Risk
New Gold (NGD) & Gold Fields (GFI): Gold prices have broken through their peaks, coupled with mining mergers and acquisitions (such as GFI's acquisition of the Gruyère gold mine), resulting in net profit margins exceeding three times the industry average. Central bank gold purchases and risk aversion provide dual support.
🔋 IV. Consumption and Industry: Recovery Expectations and Capacity Dividends
Consumer Services: Digitalization Drives the Recovery
Brinker (EAT): Chili's parent company has significantly increased revenue forecasts through menu optimization and digital ordering, boosting average order value. This is a rare example of a stock in the consumer discretionary sector experiencing upward earnings revisions.
Industrial Small-Cap Stocks: Policy and Capacity Resonance
BK Technologies (BKTI): A public safety communications equipment provider, shifting production chains to mitigate tariff risks. Inclusion in the Russell Index has boosted institutional holdings, and a gross profit margin exceeding 41% demonstrates cost control capabilities.
💼 Institutional Views: The Core Difference Between Bulls and Bears
Dimensions: Bullish Logic, Short Opportunities
AI Sector: Explosive computing power demand (data center capex +40%) supports earnings visibility
Valuation bubbles (P/E ratios of the Big Seven > 25x), with excessive concentration likely to trigger sell-offs
Market Breadth: Industrial/Financial sectors lead the gains, signaling a healthy bull market rotation
Only 60% of S&P 500 components rose, relying on leading companies
Policy Impact: The passage of the tax cut bill boosted corporate earnings, while buybacks provided liquidity
Tariffs drove inflation, suppressing the recovery of consumption and manufacturing
⚠️ Risk Warnings and Key Observations
Short-Term Volatility Catalysts:
Earnings Verification Period: If Nvidia's AI monetization report falls short of expectations in late August, it could trigger a pullback in tech stocks.
Federal Reserve Policy: Ahead of the September rate cut, interest rate-sensitive sectors (such as gold and REITs) will experience increased volatility.
Structural Risks:
Delayed Tariff Transmission: If corporate gross margins contract in Q3 due to rising costs, earnings expectations for cyclical stocks may be revised downwards. AI Demand Gap: If the penetration rate of enterprise-side agent AI applications slows, computing power infrastructure valuations will come under pressure.
💎 Conclusion: Finding a New Balance in Diffusion
The US stock market in the second half of 2025 will demonstrate three key characteristics: deepening AI momentum, accelerated sector rotation, and valuation rebalancing. Biya is a highly convenient and user-friendly tool, particularly prominent in the US and Hong Kong stock markets. It allows you to access more news without having to use multiple platforms, making it extremely convenient and practical.
Leading Forces: AI computing power (Nvidia, Vistra) and semiconductors (TSMC, Credo) still offer technological dividends, but investors should carefully select stocks with certain earnings potential.
Rotation Opportunities: Financials (Barclays), gold (GFI), and industrials (PSIX) have clear potential for valuation recovery, and diversification can reduce volatility.
Risk Hedging: Be wary of seasonal pullbacks and policy fluctuations in September, prioritizing sectors with stable cash flow (Prudential) and rigid demand (power). Biya is still very useful.
Final tip: When 91% of fund managers believe US stocks are overvalued, excess returns may come from "finding divergence within the consensus"—focusing on individual breakouts with upward earnings revisions (such as Brinker) and technological breakthroughs (such as Credo chips).