⚡️ From the shadow of massive losses to a capital frenzy: The AI infrastructure revolution behind NBIS's two-day surge

NBIS (Nebius Group)'s stock price trajectory over the past two days resembles a carefully choreographed dance between technology and capital. Expectation-beating financial results have ignited bullish sentiment, while the halo of its Nvidia holdings has accelerated valuation recovery. This also reveals the crucial transition from strategic restructuring to a profit inflection point for this European AI infrastructure giant. The following analyzes the logic behind its surge from three perspectives: event-driven, capital-driven, and technical signals.

💥 1. Core Drivers: Confirmation of the Profit Inflection Point and Reassessment of Strategic Positioning
Beyond-expectation earnings fueled bullish sentiment

Surging revenue and narrowing losses: Q2 revenue surged 625% year-over-year, while adjusted net losses were significantly lower than market expectations, signaling improved profitability. The market quickly responded to its improved cost control capabilities and the potential for accelerated commercialization.

Impressive annualized revenue guidance: The outlook for an annualized run rate revenue (ARR) of $900 million to $1.1 billion validates its cloud platform's scalability and provides a strong boost to its mid- to long-term growth.

Nvidia's endorsement reinforces AI's scarcity.

As a major Nvidia holding, NBIS is deeply embedded in the leading global AI computing ecosystem. The two companies continue to deepen their collaboration in GPU clusters and cloud architecture, particularly in sharing incremental market share from US data center expansion.

The market views the holding as "technical validation," highlighting the irreplaceable nature of NBIS's full-stack AI infrastructure (from training clusters to generative AI services).

Business restructuring is yielding dividends.

After shedding its historical baggage, the company is focusing on four key areas: AI cloud platform (Nebius AI), data annotation (Toloka AI), autonomous driving (Avride), and education technology (TripleTen), forming a closed "infrastructure + application layer" loop.

As one of Europe's largest internet companies, NBIS possesses unique advantages in local compliance and cross-regional computing capacity scheduling, catering to the localization needs of the European and American AI industries.

Table: Strategic Focus and Growth Engines Following NBIS's Business Restructuring

Business Line Core Technology Advantages Commercialization Progress
AI Cloud Platform: Large-Scale GPU Clusters + Private Cloud Architecture, Integrated with NVIDIA Chips, Expanding European and American Data Centers
Toloka AI: Generative AI Data Annotation Platform, Serving Global AI Model Training Needs
Avride: Autonomous Driving Technology, Promoting Commercialization of Vehicles and Delivery Robots
📊 II. Market Reaction and Technical Signal Analysis
Stock Price and Capital Flow Dynamics
Explosive First-Day Rally: The stock price jumped over 23% on the day of the earnings report release, with trading volume trebling the monthly average. Key resistance at $65 was breached, and short stop-loss orders exacerbated the rally.

Consolidation at the Next Day's High: The rally continued in after-hours trading, breaking through the $69 mark. Open call interest surged, reflecting continued market momentum.

Comparison of Bullish and Bearish Factor Strength
Driving Factors: Bullish Support, Bearish Pressure, Sustainability
Earnings Inflection Point Confirmed: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ⭐ Medium-Term
NVIDIA Ecosystem Tie-In: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ⭐ Long-Term
ARR Guidance Exceeds Expectations: ⭐⭐⭐ ⭐⭐ Medium-Term
Cash Flow Improvement Progress: ⭐⭐ ⭐⭐⭐ Short-Term
Key Technical Levels: $70 is a psychological barrier; upon a breakout, the target is the previous high premium range ($75-78); $65 is the dividing line between strength and weakness.

🧠 III. Institutional Consensus: Valuation Awakening from "Wait and See" to "Buy"
Horizontal Comparison Highlights Undervaluation

Despite revenue growth rates surpassing most cloud service providers, NBIS's price-to-sales ratio (PS) remains below the industry average. With narrowing losses, room for P/E recovery is opening up, leading institutions such as Bank of America to suggest it may replicate Palantir's valuation transition.

Derivatives market bets heat up

Open interest in options is concentrated in the bullish range of $70-75, and implied volatility has jumped, reflecting a convergence of short-term speculative and long-term investment strategies.

⚠️ IV. Risk Warning and Future Observation Points
Profitability Sustainability Challenges

Current growth relies on data center expansion and GPU capacity deployment. If AI demand falls short of expectations (e.g., companies cut computing budgets), ARR targets may come under pressure.

Technology Iteration Game

Amazon and Google's self-developed AI chips may reduce reliance on third-party cloud platforms. The joint technological countermeasures of NBIS and NVIDIA need to be monitored.

Key Observation Points:

September Technology Summit: Energy efficiency data for the next-generation GPU cluster and progress in customer contracts;

Q3 Financial Report (November): Whether gross profit margin can turn positive and ARR achievement;

Toloka AI Orders: Whether demand for generative AI data remains strong.

💎 Final Analysis: Layout Strategy and Scenario Forecast
Short-Term Trading:
Trade back to the $67-68 support zone. Increase position if it breaks through $70 and sees strong volume; stop loss if it falls below $65.

Long-Term Holding:
Focus on the two milestones of reaching $1.1 billion in ARR and commercialization of autonomous driving (Avride) by the end of 2025, and hold until cash flow returns to positive.

Hedging Options:
Allocate a diversified AI infrastructure portfolio (such as SNOW and NET) to diversify technology path risks.

Winning/Failure Signals:
Can Toloka's annual revenue exceed $500 million? → Avride secures an order from a logistics giant. → Nvidia announces an increase in its holdings.

🌟 Conclusion: From a "restructuring survivor" to the "new king of AI infrastructure," Biya is a very convenient and user-friendly tool for revaluing its value, and it stands out in the US and Hong Kong stock markets. You can access more news without having to use multiple platforms, making it incredibly convenient and practical.
NBIS's two-day surge wasn't simply driven by earnings reports, but rather the market's revaluation of its earnings inflection point, ecosystem integration, and strategic focus.

Short-term momentum is driven by earnings exceeding expectations and short-covering, with the $70 mark becoming a new battleground for bulls and bears.

The long-term narrative is anchored in the wave of democratized AI computing power. If European and American data centers are operational as scheduled, a market capitalization of hundreds of billions is just the beginning. Biya is still very useful.

As narrowing losses coincide with exploding demand, NBIS stands at the absolute center of Europe's AI infrastructure boom.