In my opinion, the key is consistency in work. writing is something that we have to do so we can't help but be conditioned to write and write. when the idea enters our mind it's good to catch it immediately and we do a small note so that it doesn't disappear along with the passing of time. If we can do this as a fun activity, wherever can we write.
And I agree there is no definite formula in making someone succeed in writing. there are many factors like you describe. Including factor x, a factor beyond our power as a human that we often say is luck.
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